r/stocks
SpaceX $1.75 Trillion valuation means capturing 2.4% of total US GDP by 2035. Is this realistic to you?
Analysis suggests SpaceX's rumored $1.75T valuation is unrealistic, requiring revenue to surpass Amazon's by 2035.
- The implied revenue growth to $1.1T by 2035 requires sustaining ~50% annual growth for a decade, which is historically unprecedented for a company of this scale.
- At the proposed valuation, SpaceX would need to generate more revenue than Amazon currently does, implying an outsized and unlikely share of US GDP.
- The valuation assumes a surprisingly low cost of equity despite the high risks associated with space exploration and AI markets.
[](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/?f=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%22)Rumors of a June 12 Nasdaq listing for SpaceX at a $1.75 trillion valuation are heating up, so i've been looking at the math behind that number and the assumtions are... aggressive, to say the least.
According to Fortune/New Constructs ....https://news.futunn.com/en/post/74244292/what-does-spacex-s-sky-high-valuation-imply-it-would?level=1&data\_ticket=17809234445217....., even assuming a relatively modest 10% annual return for investors, SpaceX would need to: grow revenue from $18.7B today to roughly $1.1T by 2035, sustain \~50% annual revenue growth for 10 consecutive year and eventually generate more revenue than Amazon does today. So by 2035, a single company would account for roughly 2.4% of projected U.S. GDP. And thats using a surprisingly low cost of equity for a company operating in space, AI, and other high-risk growth markets.
SpaceX may be an extraordinary business. But does a $1.75T valuation imply one of the greatest growth stories in corporate history... or just one of the greatest cases of FOMO pricing?...or we should say that only time will answer...
Tesla is overpriced af. Still goes up and stay up
Same, the market always do the opposite that major reddit advices says
But now I have to do the opposite of you, dammit reddit is confusing
There definitely are threads showing that Reddit’s majority stock picks yearly do great.
I never touch stocks overpriced like that. I get its a realistic way to make money but I have no idea how to time the market sentiment.
Cooling in space is extremely difficult and inefficient. It is a vaccum so there is no way to conduct or convect heat away, so you have to radiate it using massive radiator panels. To dissepate heat equivalent to even a small data center produces would require several football fields worth of radiator panels. Google heat management panels in space and Google the size of the radiator panels needed to cool a 5 megawatt (small) ai data center in space. It's crazy and pointless.
Short it. Put your money where your mouth is.
yeah you guys with 20k in your accounts will do a lot of damage (lmao)
When the music stops, they print money again.
space launch industry will grow very slow and the competition will grow very fast. China, India, EU will ensure there are many options available.
If the current space launch industry (US based) will grow very slow and the competition (China, India, EU, Brasil, Japan, Australia, Russia) will grow fast, they would have done it already. If the other countries were able to launch rockets and land them as efficiently as SpaceX can, they would be doing exactly that right now. But the reality is that SpaceX is about 10-15 years ahead of everyone else outside of the US.
You also have to factor other companies that are betting on SpaceX maintaining their astronautical dominance like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Planet Labs, AST, NVDA amongst others. SpaceX right now doesn’t have the revenue to be “valued” at 1.5T. But you really think that no one is going to want to use their services and would rather go with China, India or Russia? There literally is an entire industry that is being built for space communication worth billions that is being overshadowed by AI.
Well wait until after the IPO and the following pump then it’ll make sense
Anything is overpriced. Air and sunlight is over priced. Sooo you shouldn’t buy it. I’ll buy and then sell one month later. No crying in the casino, good luck have fun 🫡
Everything I have seen about the Spacex ipo is basically saying that they’re unloading the debt onto the general market and their valuation is terrible and unrealistic. Why did the Sec allow them to go into the market if it’s all so bad? Will it ruin the NASDAQ? Will the liquidity battle make a lot of damage to the tech/ai stocks the banks are selling? This feels like a very pressured move that may have a terrible effect on the markets
The theme is everyone is exit liquidity. That’s what retail thinks.
Yet, SpaceX is fully oversubscribed.
It’s gonna pump and pump the market with it.
Nope, the market does irrational things all the time. If I could explain everything with maths I'd be a very rich man.
This.
Hey