r/valueinvesting
SpaceX $1.75 Trillion valuation means capturing 2.4% of total US GDP by 2035. Is this realistic to you?
Analysis suggests SpaceX's rumored $1.75T IPO valuation is unrealistic, requiring revenue to surpass Amazon's by 2035.
- The implied revenue growth to $1.1T by 2035 requires sustaining ~50% annual growth for a decade, which is historically unprecedented for a company of this scale.
- At the proposed valuation, SpaceX would need to generate more revenue than Amazon currently does, representing an outsized 2.4% of total US GDP.
- The valuation assumes a surprisingly low cost of equity despite the high risks associated with space exploration and AI markets.
Rumors of a June 12 Nasdaq listing for SpaceX at a $1.75 trillion valuation are heating up, so i've been looking at the math behind that number and the assumtions are... aggressive, to say the least.
According to Fortune/New Constructs ....https://news.futunn.com/en/post/74244292/what-does-spacex-s-sky-high-valuation-imply-it-would?level=1&data\_ticket=17809234445217....., even assuming a relatively modest 10% annual return for investors, SpaceX would need to: grow revenue from $18.7B today to roughly $1.1T by 2035, sustain \~50% annual revenue growth for 10 consecutive year and eventually generate more revenue than Amazon does today. So by 2035, a single company would account for roughly 2.4% of projected U.S. GDP. And thats using a surprisingly low cost of equity for a company operating in space, AI, and other high-risk growth markets.
SpaceX may be an extraordinary business. But does a $1.75T valuation imply one of the greatest growth stories in corporate history... or just one of the greatest cases of FOMO pricing?...or we should say that only time will answer..
if you re asking the question that means you already know the answer ….
That thing is gonna crash but you gonna be banned on twitter or many sub here for saying that
In a word, no.