r/stocks
My $700k all-in bet that drone pure-plays are going parabolic in a couple of months. $AVEX $AVAV $KTOS
Betting $700k on AVEX, AVAV, KTOS due to projected US drone budget surge to $74B in FY27 and favorable valuation metrics.
- US defense budget for drones is projected to grow exponentially from ~$10B in FY25 to ~$74B in FY27, creating massive demand.
- Selected stocks (AVEX, AVAV) offer reasonable P/S ratios compared to speculative peers like RCAT or ONDS, providing better risk-reward.
- Geopolitical shifts and EU funding for Ukraine create a sustained macro tailwind for asymmetric warfare technology providers.
- The thesis relies heavily on specific future government contract awards which are uncertain and subject to political delays.
- Defense spending projections may be overly optimistic; actual FY27 budgets could face congressional cuts or reallocation.
- High concentration risk with a $700k all-in bet on a niche sector exposes the portfolio to significant volatility if contracts miss expectations.
TLDR; Drone budget for US: FY25 ~10B, FY26 ~25b, FY27 74b and FY2028 is going to be insane. Most of the government contracts for FY27 are about to be announced and the government literally said they are going to be ordering hundreds of thousands of asymmetric warfare in a form of small drones for FY27 which means basically ALL the stock from every established producer. Stocks going parabolic in a couple of months and why I'm betting 700k on it.
Ukraine changed warfare in real time. The old model was billion-dollar boomer toys. The new model is cheap, mass-produced drones that make expensive hardware look very stupid. Every military including US saw that, now the Pentagon is playing catch-up.
Total U.S. defense spending was about $1.0T in FY26, and the FY27 request is $1.5T roughly +$441B, or +44%. The drone/counter-drone line is even more insane: the Pentagon says FY27 is over $74B and +~200% over FY26,and the increase is about +$49B. Literally ~7x from 2025, they are panic-buying the future of war after Ukraine turned war into FPV Mario Kart.
Speaking of Ukraine, the EU has finally approved a €90B Ukraine loan for 2026/2027, with €45B expected this year and another €45B in 2027. Ukraine also has roughly $38B expected from partners for drones, air defense, and Patriots. The macro tailwind is once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
There are plenty of hype drone companies that promise the world, but are way too speculative for my taste. Let me demonstrate why i think there are some clear winners, though i believe almost all of them will go parabolic in the near future as FY27 contracts start coming in.
Now lets find the winners
Ticker| Mcap| P/S| Revenue
---|---|----|----
AVEX | $2.61B | 4.4x | $596M
AVAV | $9.37B | 5.8x | $1.62B
KTOS | $10.97B | 7.8x | $1.41B
RCAT | $1.91B | 34.9x | $55M
ONDS | $5.17B | 53.5x | $97M
UMAC | $1.28B | 74.0x | $17M
AVEX is the biggest winner because of couple of aspects: Q1 revenue went from $53M to $217M YoY. Their Tactical Systems did +548%. They guided 2026 revenue to $600–620M and had $356M funded backlog, with 93% expected to convert this year. Also, Q1 revenue was 88% U.S. Government/agencies.
That matters because this is more recession-resistant than the average hype stock. The bear case is obvious: the big ~$1.2B 2022/2025 follow-on program rolls through 2026, so bears will scream “revenue cliff.”
Concentrated US revenue might be seen as risk, But that is also the catalyst setup. If the market is pricing AVEX like there is a chance the work disappears, every refill/follow-on/new award becomes a re-rating event. And in this environment, “America stops buying drones” feels like the lowest-IQ bear case available.
Now valuation is where it gets funny.
AVEX closed Friday at $22.87. That is about 4.4x TTM sales. Meanwhile UMAC is around 30x+ sales and ONDS around 70x+. So AVEX is sitting at the drone hype table unnoticed while actually bringing revenue.
Institutions also just bought the follow-on at $27/share. Institutions literally bought in at a higher price than it is today. This is an asymmetric upside low downside gem.
But wait, there's more,Anduril IPO will add another dumb-money catalyst in the near future. When the best private company in a hot category lists or gets marked up, retail hunts for the “closest thing I can actually buy.” Look what happened in space: SpaceX is reportedly coming public around $1.75T on about $18.7B 2025 revenue, so roughly 90x+ sales / around 70x 2026 sales. Public “SpaceX-adjacent” names already got bid like crazy too: RKLB is around 100x+ sales, ASTS is around 300–400x sales.
The thesis is simple: drone budgets are going vertical, AVEX already sells real stuff into that exact hole, and is undervalued to it's peers.
5x today's AVEX sales and have it trade at 50x sales pre-Anduril IPO and it's literally 250x from here. This is obviously insane, but 5x-10x in a year should be a nobrainer.
CEO alignment is decent too: Wells’ 2026+ bonus is tied to annual performance targets, and he has performance-vesting incentive units tied to value/distribution thresholds.
And for anyone panicking that UMAC got all the hype and will get all the contracts: they are not even the same thing. UMAC is more FPV/components/goggles/supply-chain. AVEX is ISR, autonomous systems, Group I–V UAS, tactical effects, mission support, and government programs. Different lane.
Best of all things: you can literally buy in for lower price target than the institutions and myself.
Too dumb to post images, can verify positions to mods.
Positions:
17177 shares of AVEX at $24.78
1422 shares of AVAV at $173.30
1000 shares of KTOS at $52.01
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Added proof, down 1% now. True bagholder :(
Thanks for great analysis. Loads of bigger than ever contracts incoming in the next couple of months.
I’m running a daily DoD tracker to catch them. As you see from the back test, the market doesn’t react too quickly to the contracts.
FYI I also run a political tracker. Gilbert Cisneros has been slowly building a position in AVAV. Normally one politician buying wouldn’t trigger anything in my system, but he sits on the Armed Services Committee. The committee that oversees these contracts!
I had no clue, that's massive! There's some randomness in politician trades, but sitting on the commitee is rather bullish!
Yea, its small amounts but he's bought regularly. Given his position its certainly interesting. Normally I'd look for a convergence of several politicians or insiders buying or selling as well as the contract back test info for a really strong buy signal.
FYI no politicians have been buying or selling KTOS recently although Bill Hagerty has a declared position from 2024. There has been some interesting insider dealings though. two of the directors Bobbi Doorenbos and Boyd Bradley were awarded $525k in shares in May and both shortly sold around $150k of stock afterwards. This may just be them taking profits while the market is strong, however its notable.
The bigger story is Jonah Adelman, President ME Division. He sold $1.79m in shares in May.
This would definitely make me slow down on an investment into KTOS.
AVEX has some string insider buying signals. These are post IPO but pre dilution. They'll be up around 14% by now
Brian Raduenz (Director) — $1.00M, 50K shares, 04/20
Todd Booth (CFO) — $260K, 04/21 — CFO
Brett P Hush (SVP Tactical Systems) — $200K, 04/20
CEO Charles Roger IV Wells - $10k
SVP Michael Andrew Jackson -$13k
no insider selling or political action
AVEX is 23$ today, lowest of all times. A couple of weeks back shot up to 40$ and right away crashed again at half. What could be the explanation?
There was a share dilution to raise further capital for investment. Management created and sold a further 8m shares at $27 per share. This isn’t uncommon for smaller companies looking to raise capital. It is frustrating for investors, particularly those that bought the IPO.
The best sign is that management invested their own funds prior to the dilution and haven’t sold since.
It’s a great buying opportunity. Key level floor at $27. Offering out of the way and not likely to happen in couple of months. Also insider lockup ends in October, just after all the contracts have been announced and the price has gone crazy. This lockup timing is not a coincidence, it was planned to pump until October.
Whats T10, T30, etc?
Time in days from the contract being awarded
Incredible analysis!
$7k is $7k
Just buy $JEDI my dude
You may get another pop, but be prepared if you do to sell rather quickly. These types of stocks fall as quick as they rise, so you'll need to time your exit well. I made a 50% yolo play on RCAT earlier this year. If I waited to sell it would have been much much less.
bags are heavy, mom's spaghetti