r/wallstreetbets
SpaceX/Tesla Merger Double Down
Betting on a Tesla/SpaceX merger via deep OTM Dec 2026 calls, arguing Elon needs absolute control to manage AI risks.
- Merger could unlock synergies between Tesla's manufacturing and SpaceX's tech, creating significant value.
- Elon Musk's pursuit of voting control suggests strategic moves to consolidate power for long-term AI/robotics goals.
- High leverage potential if the merger narrative gains traction, as indicated by the specific option contract selection.
- Regulatory hurdles for such a massive merger would be immense and likely block the deal.
- The thesis relies heavily on speculative corporate governance maneuvers rather than current financial fundamentals.
- Deep OTM options have a high probability of expiring worthless if the merger does not occur by 2026.
The Bet:
Now 223 (up from 115) contracts of the Tesla December 18, 2026 $990 calls now at $3.61 — the single most profitable option out of roughly 8,000 different contracts on the entire Tesla chain in the event of a surprise merger announcement.
The Setup:
Elon has repeatedly said he views advanced AI and humanoid robots like Optimus as a potential existential risk to humanity. He tried to secure 25% voting control at Tesla to protect his ability to steer that future. When he couldn’t get it, he built absolute control inside SpaceX instead. He can sign a definitive merger agreement at a set exchange ratio, let’s say 4 SpaceX shares for 1 Tesla share.
After the announcement the shares will trade in lock-step until the merger closes approximately six months later.
1 + 1 = 3
Dude the share price is 400
Buddy, all we need is to 2.5x the 10th largest company on the planet, dont be a pussy
Why delete
HOW CAN SHE SLAP
Now THIS is regarded. I love this sub
tell me you don't understand mergers without literally telling me
https://preview.redd.it/ni823rp9v26h1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=02fc33b9248acba0aaba5c2f586131b3393d8ee2
Yikes
Lmao insane to think these hit
This is the person buying all the SpaceX shares at this valuation.
TSLA at 3.25T? Nice bro i believe in you
Future billionare
Welcome back
https://preview.redd.it/11lh335my26h1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c573a87f7dacefd4460182cb56e6b10ef2e0b56d
Your average is $2.81/contract which is today's high. It never reached $3.61 as you claim
If a merger happens, it won't be this year. Probably mid next year at the earliest. Also, Elon wants TSLA share price to be a lot cheaper, so when the merger happens, he will get the controlling majority voting rights of the merged shares. That's the reason for the merger in the first place. Right now, he does not have the controlling votes at TSLA.