r/wallstreetbets
SpaceX is buying Tesla - Double Down
Betting on a speculative SpaceX-Tesla merger via deep OTM calls, arguing Elon will use SpaceX control to acquire Tesla.
- Elon Musk's consolidated control over SpaceX could theoretically facilitate a reverse merger or acquisition of Tesla.
- Integration of Tesla's AI/robotics with SpaceX's infrastructure could create significant synergistic value.
- The trade targets high-leverage options that would yield massive returns if such a black-swan event occurred.
- The premise relies on a highly improbable corporate action with no regulatory or financial basis.
- Deep OTM calls expiring in 2026 have a near-zero probability of profit without a massive, immediate catalyst.
- Elon Musk has publicly stated he has no intention of merging the companies, making this thesis purely speculative fiction.
The Bet:
Now 223 (up from 115) contracts of the Tesla December 18, 2026 $990 calls now at $3.61 — the single most profitable option out of roughly 8,000 different contracts on the entire Tesla chain in the event of surprise purchase announcement.
The Setup:
Elon has repeatedly said he views advanced AI and humanoid robots like Optimus as a potential existential risk to humanity. He tried to secure 25% voting control at Tesla to protect his ability to steer that future. When he couldn’t get it, he built absolute control in SpaceX instead. He can sign a definitive purchase agreement wherein Tesla shareholders receive SpaceX shares for their Tesla shares.
After the announcement the shares will trade in lock-step until the deal closes approximately six months later.
1 + 1 = 3