⚡What is the price at which $NIO shares should be trading, and what market cap should it reach? There are different metrics for determining fair value: EV/EBITDA, Price/Earnings Ratio, Price-to-Sales (P/S)

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO\_Day⚡.    What is the price at which NIO shares should be trading, and what market cap should it reach? There are different metrics for determining fair value: EV/EBITDA, Price/Earnings Ratio, Price-to-Sales (P/S)... Let's take the latter.

But first, should NIO be valued like a conventional automaker? Well, let's first say that NIO is currently the only 100% electric vehicle company in China. Not Avatr, not Xpeng, not Zeekr...

All these companies have recently added EV models to their lineups. And its average selling price (ASP), excluding its sub-brands, is probably the largest in the industry today. Last week, its flagship brand reached an incredible $66,500 ASP per vehicle. NIO recorded an average transaction price exceeding 450,000 yuan ($66,500), according to Ma Lin, Vice President of Brand and Communications, on Monday.

Should NIO then be valued as a conventional automaker, a growth company, or a technology company?

NIO delivered a total of 221,970 vehicles in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.7%.

In 2025, NIO Inc. achieved a record year with 326,028 vehicles delivered, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.9%.

For 2026, between 450,000 and 500,000 vehicles are projected... that is, between 40% and 50%.

Only in emerging countries, Africa, and Latin America, have automakers that still produce cars powered by internal combustion engines grown by up to 5%. In regions like Europe, this industry is contracting by double digits. Clearly, it should be valued as a growth company.

Should it be valued as a technology company? Autonomous Driving, Battery Swapping Infrastructure: Pioneers in Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) technology, Software Ecosystem, Hardware and Energy Innovation. To date, NIO has filed and obtained more than 9,600 patents worldwide.

The Chinese company has maintained a steady pace of research and development.

NIO is the company, within the EV world, that has filed the most patents in the world.

In the last two years, Xpeng and Rivian have shown progress in their market capitalization, both reaching a Price-to-Sales ratio of 4.5x.

Comparison with Tesla 2020.

In 2020, the year Tesla reached a market capitalization of $764 billion, it sold and delivered a total of 499,550 vehicles. These numbers are very similar to what NIO will sell this year.

In 2020, Tesla recorded total revenues of $31.536 billion. NIO will report revenues of around $21-22 billion.

Tesla's Average Selling Price (ASP) in 2020 decreased year-over-year, closing near $50,000.

NIO's main brand, as we mentioned, is currently achieving a record average selling price (ASP) of around $66,500.

May's strong performance brought the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer's total deliveries for the January-May period to 150,526 units, a 68.70% increase year-over-year. Of those 150,000 units, 97,580 were NIO brand vehicles—66% of total sales. With 66% of sales coming from the NIO brand, the consolidated ASP remains above $50,000, an exceptionally high figure for a high-volume EV manufacturer.

Today's projected ASP is $52,300, including all three brands.

Tesla's gross margin in 2020 was 21.02%. NIO just reported a 19% gross margin; we'll see how they fare now with ES9.

Tesla's (TSLA) price-to-sales (P/S) ratio at the end of 2020 was 24.22.

NIO's (NIO) price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, assuming projected revenues of $21-22 billion and a current market capitalization of $13.5 billion, would be 0.6....Incredible, isn't it?

|Year|P/S Tesla|

|:-|:-|

|2012|9,36|

|2013|9,20|

|2014|8,67|

|2015|7,58|

|2016|4,92|

|2017|4,37|

|2018|2,68|

|2019|3,02|

|2020|24,22|

In conclusion, Xpeng and Rivian have had their respective reratings, climbing to a Price-to-Sales ratio of 4.5x, without even generating profits. In Rivian's case, it's coming off a loss of $3.6 billion in 2025 and another $416 million in Q1 2026.

If we take that same Price-to-Sales ratio for a potential rerating of NIO's stock price, using projected revenues of around $22 billion for 2026, that would give us a market cap of around $99 billion. $99 billion is a stock priced at $44. This closely matches the 61.8% retracement of the entire correction, taking the all-time highs of 2021 and the lows of 2025 ($42, $55).

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oWPz4mYi/