A regard's critique of "I'm buying IPO shares to sell on the day 1 rip"

I'm doing zero grammar checks to make sure you beautiful minded degens know this isn't some bs AI slop. I keep seeing a concerning number of us (and other) dumpster dwellers say shit along the lines of "I'm buying shares in XYZ IPO so I can sell on the day 1 rip" or something along those lines in reference to the incoming big boy IPOs. Couple points:

1. The average IPO underperforms their size and style matched peers by 8-9% in the first year (Ritter et al). This is a well studied and documented phenomena which I think I've seen the couple of brain cells we can rub together sorta grasp but not really. Its a structural thing due to the fact that even normal companies list with a fraction of the float that inevitably gets unloaded on your face by insiders and early investors (kind like what we let our typical client do for an extra fiver). That float that gets unlocked at a later date is almost always sold because they're sitting on massive gains (unlike you and me i dont even know what a gain is).
2. Even assuming you and the market is right that it pops on day 1, the more traders that try to take advantage of it means the less opportunity there really is. Think about it this way - there's a very good reason most IPOs allocate way less than the \~30% SpaceX is giving to retail. Retail is fickle and are substantially more likely to do exactly what many of you think you're going to do. It's also why brokers generally ban you from future IPOs for doing it (assuming you actually have an account large enough where they care).
3. There seems to be an assumption that market makers will keep the stock propped up no matter what pre the 15 day forced buying. There is effectively zero verifiable evidence for that ex-ante beyond the known green shoe measures (which you don't know will be adequate or even enacted sufficiently). The expectation for traders to push it up in order to scalp the Nasdaq inclusion date isn't a verifiable thing it's at best a gamble (not the fun kind).
4. There has literally never been IPOs at this scale in the US market and we've got 3 incoming. This is an equity market stress test we've got no real reference for. Nobody actually knows what'll happen, like usual. It's largely just an assumption that it'll be gucci because the stock market is so hot rn.

TL;DR: The more people that try to do what many of you think you're going to do the less the opportunity there is and the more likely there is none at all.