r/wallstreetbets
Consensus view on oracle earnings?
Author expects fairly priced, boring ORCL earnings, noting its massive AI capex is a modestly bullish sign that could impact stock MU.
- ORCL's massive planned AI capex ($80-$100B) for Stargate is backed by customer commitments, derisking the investment.
- Customers like OpenAI are securing upfront funding to pay for their share, ensuring project viability.
- MU is expected to report a blowout earnings in two weeks, showing strong underlying semiconductor demand.
- It remains unclear how ORCL's profit margins will scale despite projected mid-20s revenue growth.
- Following the AVGO earnings fiasco, there is a risk of a similar short-term market disappointment or drop.
After the absolute fiasco that was AVGO, trying to get a sense of where ORCL will land this week to understand how it impacts other stocks (read: MU which I hold and reports 2 weeks later and will have a blowout report but could have short term impacts from ORCL). They’re also the only major AI play reporting though they are $1.2T market cap LESS than AVGO so not going to blow up the entire market like they did.
In general, ORCL plans to spend even more new FY on shitstars (stargate) than originally planned ($80-$100B now planned through next FY) and customers like OpenAI will fund their part through their $100B+ IPO fundraise. Seems like a modestly bullish sign. They managed the financing and customer upfront commits to derisk this more so it doesn’t disappear in 6months with a customer backing out.
ORCL is trading at TTM PE of 38 and projecting revenue growth in the mid 20s next year. Not entirely clear how their margins will scale. This is sort of inline with expectations PE/growth curve wise.
TLDR: seems kind of like a perfectly priced boring earnings and they’re priced appropriately but do we see any kind of blow up that can happen from their earnings? Pop or drop?
Outside factor: do we think 🥭 will have the government take an equity stake in ORCL? My paranoia in hearing that he wanted the govt to have AI stakes was really that he wanted someone in particular to have a government backed stake and didn’t want to say who.
My guess is beats earnings
No one cares. (CRM Option)
People care. It shoots up for a day or two then everyone remembers it's SaaS and no one cares (datadog/figma option)
People care but there is one thing that doesn't look good - tanks (broadcom option)
SaaS is such a small part of Oracle. Only a quarter. This ain’t the Oracle of 2015
If anything is to go by, ORCL will do fine and drop next day.
Ellison is the largest pvt donor to the IDF.
CALLS!
https://preview.redd.it/60606a2mb66h1.png?width=543&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0caf3d69d3f766cdf140b03cebf90dbd80e85d8
Hey any time I like to post nonsense so regards like you can make aggressive replies, feel overconfident, and then lose all your money on options plays that you thought were for sure.
Huge dump
You’re taking one right now? Me too. Let’s compare lengths on Snapchat send me a pic of your shit and I’ll send you mine @chunguslicker69
6/12 180P. You’re welcome.
I got the 6/12 250C. May the best regard one
Really wish we could watch the reactions live
If you’ve listened to their earnings report and guidance, their RPO is $553 Billion. Which is contracted future revenue.
FY2027 is around $90 Billion which is enormous and exceeded its previous projections. Bullish
The RPO number is almost unbelievable. I assume the street is discounting that. They’d also be underspending relative to Google / Amazon which implies their RPO is overstated otherwise they’d be spending faster.
Do you think they’ll pop after earnings and reiterating next year guidance?
I think they’ll do extraordinarily well. It doesn’t hurt that it’s a Trump stock either. Disclosure, I own tons of shares and call options.
My dick
Microsoft is one of the most important players in the AI race and it's viewed as SaaS. Oracle ain't escaping the tag.
where have you been?