r/wallstreetbets
The SpaceX IPO is cooked
SpaceX IPO hype has reached peak saturation (Grandma indicator), signaling retail investors are the exit liquidity for early insiders.
- Retail hype saturation indicates the 'greater fool' pipeline is exhausted, leaving no new buyers to drive prices up post-IPO.
- Early institutional investors (VCs, sovereign funds) have already secured massive multiples and will use the IPO to offload shares to retail.
- Historical contrarian signals (e.g., shoeshine boy theory) suggest that when non-investors discuss specific price targets, a top is near.
My 12-year-old brother runs a lemonade stand — profitable, 80% margins, no debt. Easily top 1% of WSB members who've mentioned "investments."
Yesterday a 65-year-old woman — let's call her Grandma — told him to invest in SpaceX because it would "go up 40% and he could sell before the crash." Ethel did not elaborate. Ethel did not cite sources. Ethel paid $2.00 for lemonade and left.
Grandma is not an oracle. Grandma is an indicator.
When a 65-year-old woman is discussing SpaceX price targets at a child's lemonade stand, the hype has saturated every layer of society — from institutional analysts down to suburban grandmothers making small talk while buying lemonade.
That is not the beginning of a trade. That is the end of one.
The smart money got in years ago. Grandma heard about it from her son-in-law at Thanksgiving. You are hearing about it now. You are last.
The oldest signal in markets
Joe Kennedy famously got out in 1929 when his shoeshine boy started giving him stock tips. Once everyone knows, there is nobody left to buy — the whole trade only works if there are greater fools behind you.
Grandma is not the greater fool. Grandma is the GREATEST fool — evidence the pipeline is exhausted and you're standing at the end of it.
You think you can outsmart the market?
By the time SpaceX IPOs, early investors will already have made 50–100x in private markets. Andreessen, Fidelity and sovereign wealth funds bought in when the valuation was in the billions. They've been waiting for Grandma. The IPO isn't happening because SpaceX needs money — it's happening because the owners decided it's time to sell, and they need buyers to absorb $80–100B in paper gains.
That buyer is you.
How it plays out
- Stock opens +25–40%, CNBC runs a segment, Elon posts a rocket emoji.
- Your coworker who's never opened a brokerage account asks how to buy SpaceX — he's the last buyer.
- You, buying before him, are second-to-last.
If you're unlucky (you are) it craters post-IPO once the algos dump. Then the lockup expires and the people who actually made money distribute into every dip-buyer and diamond-hands guy. You are the exit liquidity.
The lemonade kid took Ethel's $2.00 and bought a Pokémon pack. He is liquid — he heard the same thing you heard and made the correct decision.
TL;DR — Ethel isn't smart money. Ethel is the signal that smart money is already gone. 🐻🍋
Positions: Long 200 cups of lemonade at avg cost $2.10 & 10 ethel-opinion puts
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. I wouldn't touch the IPO with a ten-foot pole.
I saw Elon Musk at a CVS last Tuesday. He was in the greeting card aisle for a very long time. Not reading the cards, just standing near them with his arms crossed like he was supervising. At one point he picked one up, read it, and put it back facing the wrong way. He did this to seventeen cards. A CVS employee asked if he needed help and he said "I'm good" in a way that ended the conversation permanently.
He got in line behind me with nothing in his hands. Just got in line. When he got to the register the cashier asked if he found everything okay and he said "that's a great question" and then didn't answer it. He tapped his card before she'd even told him the total. It worked.
As I was leaving, I saw him hold the door open for "me" even though I was way behind him. But let go as soon as I got close
THIS IS THE MOST REGARDED TRADE I'VE EVER DONE. he says as he is hitting the post order button.
Not your chief, bruv
not my bra dude
LTLRTRD
Just type it with zero punctuation and misplaced words. This has my go to for everything
It got deleted but the whole phraseology of “ethyl wasn’t just grandma. She was a prophet”. Anytime you see “it isn’t just…. It’s…” guaranteed ChatGPT
Right? Your pot committed as soon as your car stops. I mean you could fake not having it but no one wants random to look broker than a 5 year old. She's wise beyond her years
Does anyone know the correlation between how many paragraphs the front page complain post is and how high the stock goes?
You have shoes? Fancy.
The only time I can excuse it is when someone’s first language isn’t English.
Fucking google translate has existed for decades. The OG of "just gimme the exact same thing in another language".
Most of us don't speak English as our first language but we don't need AI to collect our thoughts to converse in English. I wrote this whole comment in Chinese and just hit translate, that's it.
I think it was Norway and Denmark who banned this stock or from their investments altogether.
That's not a good sign.
It will pump then reddit think that this is the greatest thing ever then it will crash
Thats why s & p not adding it right away the company probably isn't profitable currently.
how about u eat my ASS
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