14 Investment write-ups to look

Another batch of company write-ups from Substack authors from within the last week.

Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: https://gilescapital.substack.com

Americas

Rijnberk InvestInsights on **Shopify** (🇨🇦 SHOP TSX - CAD$198bn)

Shopify commands 29% of US e-commerce at 63x P/E. The toll across Payments, Capital, and expanding B2B either compounds faster than the multiple compresses, or it does not.

D Invests on **Tractor Supply** (🇺🇸 TSCO US - US$23.5bn)

Rural lifestyle retailer at 14.7x P/E, dominant in markets where no national competitor exists. Management buybacks underway as insider penetration at 43% of US rural households suggests structural demand.

Archive Invest on **Toast** (🇺🇸 TOST US - US$15.1bn)

Restaurant software covering 28% of US food service. Down 47% from its peak, yet with $1.8bn net cash, zero sell ratings among covering analysts, and EBITDA guidance improving.

DeepValue Capital on **KBR** (🇺🇸 KBR US - US$3.5bn)

Government services and engineering at $3.5bn market cap. HomeSafe contract termination put the author on the sideline; the $2.2bn net debt is the reason the bar to re-enter stays high.

Value Don't Lie on **MasterBrand** (🇺🇸 MBC US - US$1.8bn)

Largest US cabinet maker after the all-stock merger, at 30%+ market share. Trades at 7.7x trough EBITDA; a housing recovery and $90M in merger synergies are the thesis.

Unfair Advantage on **Natural Grocers** (🇺🇸 NGVC US - US$659M)

22 straight years of positive comp sales; Isely family owns 43%. In-house nutritionists advising supplements are the loyalty moat competitors cannot copy. P/E 13.5x with mid-teen growth targets.

Europe, Middle East & Africa

Demystified Value on **Prada** (🇮🇹 1913 HK - US$12.5bn)

Luxury at 9x EV/EBIT while peers trade 16-25x. Miu Miu growing 60%+, 80% Prada family control. The discount only makes sense if the brand is impaired; the evidence says otherwise.

310 Value on **eDreams ODIGEO** (🇪🇸 EDRE MC - €490M) TOP PICK

All the attention is on the -64% drawdown. The underlying business has 7.9M Prime subscribers, EBITDA up 74% over nine months, and management buying stock at P/E 5.1x.

Asia-Pacific

G.W. Field Notes on **ASX Limited** (🇦🇺 ASX ASX - US$6bn)

Australia's dominant exchange monopoly at 8x sales versus 11x historically, 4.2% yield. The CHESS failure is the reason for the discount; the moat across listing, trading, and clearing has not changed.

KonichiValue on **Koei Tecmo Holdings** (🇯🇵 3635 TYO - US$3.4bn)

Dynasty Warriors maker at 11.5x P/E; the Erikawa family's investment portfolio outearned the gaming division last year. Clean balance sheet: ¥115bn net cash against a $3.4bn market cap. Market prices it as a mid-tier studio.

Value Guinea on **Da Ren Tang and Beijing Tong Ren Tang National Medicine** (🇨🇳 600329 SS - US$4.2bn / 🇨🇳 3613 HK - US$913M)

Da Ren Tang ($3.8bn, P/E 14.6, 43% net margin) and Tong Ren Tang ($913M) run the same TCM franchise. Equity reform and ROE 28% tell one story; SOE governance tells the other.

stf research on **Sakai Chemical Industry** (🇯🇵 4078 TYO - ¥89bn)

World's largest barium sulfate supplier to AI cooling systems, 30%+ market share, guidance raised. Stock up 90% since publication; the thesis is intact but the re-rating is already priced.

Archetype Capital on **Sakai Chemical Industry and Nippon Chemical Industrial** (🇯🇵 4078 TYO - ¥89bn / 🇯🇵 4092 TYO - ¥48bn)

Follow-on pairing the market leader with the #3 barium sulfate supplier. Both up 90-130% since initial coverage; whether the oligopoly structure holds is now the question.

Value Zoomer on **Focus Point Holdings** (🇲🇾 FOCUSP KLSE - US$83M) TOP PICK

Malaysia's dominant optical chain, with a government ban on online contact lens sales eliminating the price competition that held back margins. 51% founder control, 9x P/E, 90 stores.