r/options
SpaceX IPO is coming!
Bearish on SpaceX IPO citing retail FOMO and overvaluation; draws parallel to Rivian's post-IPO crash as a cautionary tale.
- Retail investor frenzy (non-trader friends asking) often signals a local top or lack of easy alpha.
- Valuation of $1.75T heavily prices in speculative Mars missions rather than just core launch/Starlink revenue.
- Historical precedent of high-profile EV IPOs like Rivian shows significant downside risk from hype-driven pricing.
Honestly I think SpaceX is a short here.
Three people DMed me last week asking how to get in on the IPO. That's usually my signal - when non-trading friends start asking, the easy money is gone.
$1.75T for what's essentially Starlink + launch services + Mars vibes. Starlink is real, launch is real, Mars is priced in like a sure shot and it's not.
Keep thinking about Rivian. Listed at $100, "category-defining EV", every analyst was a buyer. Currently at $13. Doesn't have to play out the same way but you've seen this movie before.
Took a small short on the pre-IPO on Coindcx last week. Plan is to hold through the listing and see how it trades.
Could be wrong, often am. Anyone else seeing this as a fade or am I just being contrarian for the sake of it?