r/options
Premium in SpaceX proxy ETF and Stocks
Recommends selling puts on SpaceX proxies (NASA, RKLB, ASTS) to exploit high IV and expected post-IPO crush, warning retail call buyers.
- Extremely elevated implied volatility offers rich premiums for cash-secured put sellers.
- High estimated annualized returns on capital and high probability of profit for the proposed trades.
- NASA ETF requires the least capital among the proxies, making it accessible for smaller accounts.
- The Musk/SpaceX narrative is heavily hyped, posing a risk of retail investors getting trapped buying calls.
- Implied volatility is expected to crash after the SpaceX IPO, which could hurt long volatility positions.
- Proxy names like ASTS and RKLB are currently trending down, indicating underlying price weakness.
I saw a post somebody buying options in NASA ETF as a play for SpaceX IPO.
I think the whole musk-space thingy is so hyped they going to whack retail crowd that bought calls on every proxy name. But I'm not going to pretend I know how the market going to behave.
I think a better play is IV. It is so elevated it makes sense to sell premium, PUTs specifically. A bit of long bias, and the play IV in these names will crash after IPO.
I've dug three liquid proxies: NASA, RKLB, ASTS
I like the most NASA, mostly because it requires least capital. All trades below for CSPs.
NASA
Sell the 27 put for NASA in July. Collect $1.45 premium. Requires $2,700 collateral. Has 38 days to expiration.
Price 1.45
Delta -0.25
Theta -3.53
RoC 12 (estimated annualized return on capital)
P50 81 (estimated probability of 50% profit)
Margin 2700
Days to P50 9 (estimated days to reach P50)
Reasoning I got from the app I'm using:
Sell the 27 put. Elevated relative volatility drove the decision, with current option volatility high enough to pay for a farther out-of-the-money strike.
The trade keeps the short side on the put side rather than the naked call. The stock trades in the lower half of its 52-week range, and the 27 put gives room below the current price while still paying a usable credit for a cash IRA.
Risk comes from only adequate options liquidity. The volatility setup helps, but fills may need discipline. No completed prior trades came back for comparison, so the decision rests on current pricing and liquidity. Show less
The other two have similar metrics, and they going down so premiums are even richer and stricter can move further out.
ASTS had the highest RoC, 22% - I usually get 4-6% range but IV is so rich, that returns in cash secured account looks like trading with T-Margin
ASTS
Sell 90 put for ASTS in July. Collect $11.15 premium. Requires $9,000 collateral. Has 38 days to expiration.
RKLB
Sell the 100 put for RKLB in July. Collect $8.11 premium. Requires $10,000 collateral. Has 38 days to expiration.
PS
I just got NASA order filled at $1.70, oh well that was a very fast fill with a price better than nat.
I sold some NASA CSPs and some RKLB CSPs near the end of May. I'm trending to get assigned on both. I then sold more CSPs at a lower strike, we'll see how that goes.
selling CSPs on single names with that kind of IV crush thesis is fine until the underlying gaps down on news you can't hedge, which is why i ended up moving to index options through PutYield instead of chasing individual stock premium
Looks good
Selling puts on elevated IV post-IPO catalyst is solid logic — IV crush is real and RKLB/ASTS have historically seen 40-60% IV drops after major events. One thing worth checking: StrikeEdge.io surfaces the actual IV percentile on these names so you know if you're genuinely selling at the top or just feeling like you are. ASTS in particular has been wild lately. What expiry are you targeting for the IV crush to play out?
\>> The stock trades in the lower half of its 52-week range, and the 27 put gives room below the current price while still paying a usable credit for a cash IRA
Selling puts as prescribed, at the bottom
Well, maybe not exactly bottom but mid range and with high IV rank.
Good stuff
https://preview.redd.it/deyn6pwawv6h1.png?width=921&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a0284586fc5a9827f10d723049585829d2edfd2
Just a quick followup on this
They started to compress IV, as you can see it dipped today. NASA is down 7% and 27 PUT still loosing value.
Calls IV, I imagine, got completely crashed.
I think these names continue to be short vol trade for a while.
Selling puts on RKLB and ASTS post-IPO hype crush is actually a solid IV mean-reversion play — you're getting paid while everyone else panic-buys calls. The key is timing the entry after the IPO news drops and IV spikes hardest, not before. Been using StrikeEdge io lately to spot exactly when IV is stretched vs. historical ranges on smaller names like these — saves a ton of manual scanning. Which expiry are you targeting for the IV collapse, weeklies or monthly?