SPCX: anyone else thinking short-term play on opening hype?

Why IPO ban ?

I have not read any terms about not selling shares on IPO day from my broker, also wouldn't they care more about if you're winning or losing money since it's the way they make bank ?

Bro we're all buying...

Lmao, the only way to make money on SPCX is exactly by flipping it within 15 days from the IPO date.

I'm new to IPOs, is this a normal requirement? Or is this another way they're stacking the deck against retail investors?

False, there is a price test and a timing component. First insider sale at Q2 earnings

You are making an argument for something no one was talking about.

Down to learn if you feel like adding anything of substance.

Still not touching it. This stock is the epitome of “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid”.

I've made more money on Tesla puts than any other instrument this year.

It will pop for a few reasons:

1) only 4-6% of the total shares will be free float on ipo date, a super low %. So there just won’t be that many shares out there to buy

2) combined that with the fast-track Nasdaq 100 and other etf/index funds buying and there will just be more demand for shares than supply

Think about it. $1.75T value. Only 5% shares actually publicly tradable. Thats only $87.5B in value. Apple by comparison has 99% float.

Then once insiders, employees, and other investors can sell their shares - about 3-6 months later - you’ll see price fall. All of a sudden there will be 2-4x the amount of shares in float and supply will catch up to or exceed demand. Price will fall and who knows how far. It’ll all depend on quarterly reports after that

Okay yes but if we're talking honestly about Elon driven hype, Tesla is one of the most mature companies in the world, has been in the top market cap for years. There is no growth that realistically delivers PEG that is reasonable compared to peers. It is purely a brand loyalty/irrational exuberance model.

IMO if you're being honest about SpaceX it's largely a play on Elon shifting around money to always make his company values go up. If he wasn't involved, would all the same things be true of their business model?

Revenue and profit is different

It will pop to $8T range, and will be the most valuable company in the world for a short period of time (days/weeks)

Did you not actually read the commenter above you? There is 4x the amount of demand for the shares available. It's seeing out immediately. Whether they priced themselves too low or not is another question, but unless you have a HNW relationship at one of the bigger banks, there is huge doubt as to whether you would get any allocation if requested.

Market cap will be completely detached from the actual true valuation of the company in the first few weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if the IPO pop is like 30%

Robinhood tells you that shares are tradable at anytime once granted, but if you sell within 30 days you'll get an automatic 60-day ban from future IPOs. Tradable doesn't mean there can't also be a flipping penalty.

Just one data point but you can see where the SPCX perpetual contracts are trading in Hyperliquid. Doesn’t mean they’ll actually trade at these levels tomorrow but they were accurate for CBRS as well.

https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/xyz:SPCX

Probably hundreds of millions if not Billions of people have same idea, so technically you are playing casino there, search JetX Casino, it will be exactly like that

kinda funny that the person they quote is named Buyer when her job is helping companies sell shares

I ignored it and got my 1000 and am effectively being paid to post here now.

It will tank and will be the start of a wider crash

Man I can't wait to see the action tomorrow as a bystander. I predict a close at $130. Everyone wants to make a quick but, except they will run out of suckers. Big money will consider it a missed opportunity and sunk cost and try to get out at minimum loss.

Hey I am just a nut in the peanut gallery, not financial advice!🤡

I’m staying as far away as possible from that

„in not a gambler but i enjoy gambling“

yeahh

Friday baby! Don't forget Papi Elon is especially generous that he allows employees to sell on the first day instead of the usual 6 month locked period

yup we're in a bubble

I was going to put in a request for 40 shares through Robinhood, wait for the pop and dump on day 1 because I really don't care if they limit my IPO access due to flipping. BUT then I remembered Robinhood's penchant for completely shutting down sell orders due to "market volatility" and decided I don't want to be a forced bag holder that sees my $5000 go up in smoke this weekend.

\555,555,555 \ $135 = $75T (-$75, granted)

Technically still true that most insiders will have that lockup.

Yes, literally every person I've talked to (who actively trades, and also some who only passively trade) had the same exact same idea. I am dying to see how this thing plays out. I think it's gonna pull a VCX. Maybe not 10x, maybe not over 5 days, but there will be a pop and there will be a return to earth.

There is a chance this turns into a coin-flip.

Welcome to the Jungle, we got fun and games...

That's a contrarian indicator if I've ever seen one. Similar to the shoe-shine boy telling Jessie Livermore to buy stocks in 1929.

it's only "doom and gloom" if you're long.

In and out today for a quick hit. Good stuff. Got lucky on my pre-open bid of 150.

Looks like 160 was dead on

You will be penalized if you sell the first month

Would the stock passing 175 technically unlock 10% of shares or does that clause have to close at 30% past ipo or for x days?