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r/investingr/investing· u/hellamarrie· 4d ago 0

SpaceX IPO is in 2 days. I read the entire S-1 so you don't have to. Heres the good, the bad, and the absolutely insane.

Investor summaryBearish

SpaceX's $1.77T IPO shows strong Starlink growth but faces $30B annual cash burn, 95x sales valuation, and absolute Musk control.

Bull points
  • Dominates 82% of US space launches and 45% of global commercial space contracts.
  • Starlink reached 10.3M subscribers with $3.26B in Q1 connectivity revenue.
  • Diversified business model encompassing Space, Starlink, and AI segments.
Bear points
  • Burned ~$30B in cash over four quarters, depleting the $75B IPO raise in 2.5 years.
  • Trades at an extreme 95x 2025 revenue, significantly higher than mega-cap tech peers.
  • Musk holds 85% voting power through Class B shares, creating absolute control and governance risks.
SPCXAI 资本开支财报季
Post body

On June 12, the largest ipo in the history of financial markets goes live( $135/share) at $1.77 trillion valuation and its a $75 billion raise which is more than triple saudi aramco's record from 2019 and bitpanda is listing SPCX from day one with fractional shares,i spent the last few days going through the S-1 filing and this is what actually matters.

THE NUMBERS THAT BREAK YOUR BRAIN

Spacex handles 82% of all US space launches and 45% of all commercial space contracts on the planet,starlink hit 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries by end of Q1 2026 roughly double a year earlier and connectivity revenue hit $3.26 billion in q1 alone so about 69% of total company revenue. The total 2025 revenue came in at $18.7 billion across three segments Space, Starlink, and AI

THE PART NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT

Spacex posted a $2.6 billion loss in 2025, its q1 2026 operating loss ballooned to $1.9 billion and over the past four quarters, spacex has burned through approximately $30 billion in cash meaning the entire $75 billion IPO raise disappears in roughly 2.5 years at the current burn rate.

The ai unit alone spent $12.7 billion in capital expenditure in 2025, and another $7.7 billion just in q1 2026.

At $1.77 trillion, this trades at nearly 95 times its 2025 revenue and even the most expensive mega cap tech companies rarely go above 30x sales.

THE ELON FACTOR

Musk owns Class B supervoting stock giving him approximately 85% of the voting power. The only person who can remove musk as ceo is Musk himself so you are buying a ticket to ride along with whatever Elon decides to do next.(although i like him but...)

SO WHAT IS SPCX ACTUALLY?

After the x ai merger in feb 2026, buying SPCX means you are buying starlink which is fastest growing internet service on the planet ,grok ai and the X platform and a balance sheet with $770M in Bitcoin

All controlled by one man with 85% of the votes, burning $30 billion a year, priced at 95x sales and going public in 48 hours.

I am not telling you to buy or avoid it,both cases are genuinely strong but what I will say is that whatever happens on June 12, it will not be boring.

Not financial advice. Do your own research before investing

Discussion · top comments7 selected
u/Mask_of_Majora04 10· 4d ago

Thanks AI!

u/ertri 2· 4d ago

Wild that grok can’t even make the ipo look good

u/hellamarrie -1· 4d ago

all i did was bold my headings but yeah i get why u think its ai,dead internet fr

u/Ceftiofur 1· 4d ago

Bad bot

u/Seattleman1955 1· 4d ago

Where have I seen this before? Oh yeah, Tesla with a PE of 360...

u/LuciusQ2020 1· 4d ago

But my brain is not broken yet. Launching rocket may be profitable but can’t justify the share price.

u/Sufficient-Flan1565 1· 4d ago

Slop