Apple locked 450 million EU users out of its biggest Siri update ever

Been following the WWDC situation today and wanted to share what the numbers actually look like underneath the headlines, because i think there are a few things worth separating out here.

Apple unveiled Siri AI at WWDC 2026, Tim Cook’s final keynote as CEO and the stock hit an all time intraday high of $317 yesterday morning then closed down around 2% at $301. The market was up on the day while Apple went the other way.

Two things drove the drop. First, no firm timeline on when Siri AI actually ships to users. The AI overhaul was first teased at WWDC 2024 and two years of delays later it’s still in beta with no hard date. Second, Apple confirmed Siri AI won’t be available in the EU or mainland China at launch. that’s roughly 450 million EU users locked out of the feature that was supposed to drive the next iPhone upgrade cycle.

here’s what the fundamental show:

ROIC: 29.3% (5yr avg: 23.9%)

Gross margin: 47.9%

FCF margin: 24.3%

Net margin: 26.9%

Revenue CAGR 5yr: 11.1%

P/E: 37.3x

Fair value estimate: \~$250 (using 9% discount rate)

Current price: \~$301

so even after today’s drop, my model puts Apple about 18-19% overvalued. The business itself is genuinely exceptional at 29% ROIC, $101B in annual free cash flow, 2.2 billion active devices. Nobody is questioning whether Apple is a great business however, the question is whether $301 is the right price for it.

the EU situation is the thing that bothers me most from a valuation standpoint. This isn’t just a feature delay, it’s regulatory risk becoming a permanent part of the business model. If Apple’s AI roadmap keeps running into DMA compliance issues in Europe, that’s a structural constraint on the addressable market for every major product launch going forward. Europe is not a small market.

There’s also the CEO transition happening in the background. Tim Cook is out, John Ternus is in. Ternus wasn’t even at the keynote today which is a weird signal for a guy about to take over the most valuable company in the world. Cook built the services revenue engine that transformed Apple’s margin profile. Whether ternus continues that or pivots back toward hardware is a genuine unknown.

the bull case is straightforward as services revenue just hit $31B in the most recent quarter, an all time high. The installed base of 2.2B devices creates a recurring revenue moat that compounds quietly regardless of what Siri does and the AI story, while delayed, isn’t dead. When it does ship properly it could still drive a meaningful upgrade cycle.

a few things i’m genuinely uncertain about. At 37x earnings for a company growing revenue at 11% annually, how much of the AI story is already priced in? and if the EU regulatory environment keeps expanding, how does that affect the long term services revenue trajectory in Europe specifically?

curious what people think about the valuation here post drop. Is $301 a buying opportunity or does the AI delay and EU risk justify waiting for a lower entry point?