r/valueinvesting
Smucker’s quarter looked good. Its guidance looked less convincing.
$SJM beat Q4 earnings and reduced debt, but FY27 guidance projects a 3-4% sales decline, sending mixed signals.
- Q4 EPS beat expectations with ~20% YoY growth and strong free cash flow.
- Solid shareholder returns via dividends and significant debt reduction.
- FY27 guidance expects net sales to decline by 3% to 4%.
- Mixed signals from strong current earnings versus weak forward sales outlook.
$SJM Q4 FY2026:
Revenue: $2.27B
Revenue growth: +5.8%
Adjusted EPS: $2.77 vs. $2.65 expected
EPS surprise: +4.5%
Free cash flow: $1.19B for the full year
Debt reduction: $720M
The quarter was solid.
Adjusted EPS rose from $2.31 last year to $2.77, roughly 20% growth.
Smucker also returned $464.7M to shareholders through dividends while continuing to pay down debt.
But the outlook is where the story gets less clean.
For fiscal 2027, management expects:
Adjusted EPS: $9.75 to $10.25
Net sales: down 3% to 4%
So the market is looking at two competing signals:
Better earnings, stronger cash flow, and debt reduction on one side.
Expected sales declines on the other.
| Metric | Value |
| :--- | :--- |
| Market Cap | $12B |
| Revenue | $9.05B |
| EPS (Diluted) | −$11.79 |
| EPS (Normalized) | $7.18 |
| Dividend Yield (Trailing) | 3.91% |
| Dividend Yield (5Y Avg) | 3.28% |
| Buyback Yield | 0.05% |
| Buyback Yield (5Y Avg) | 0.10% |
| Return on Assets (Normalized) | 4.48% |
| Return on Equity (Normalized) | 13.28% |
| Return on Invested Capital (Normalized) | 7.95% |
| Price/Earnings | — |
| Price/Earnings (Normalized) | 11.70 |
| Price/Earnings (Forward) | 9.86 |
| Price/Earnings (5Y Avg) | 13.26 |
| Total Debt/Equity | 1.28 |
| Long-Term Debt | 6.39B |
| Short-Term Debt | 570.90M |
| Cash (Balance Sheet) | 58.60M |
| EBITDA | $875.80M |
| Shares Outstanding | 106.65M |
| Sustainable Growth Rate | −2.40 |
| Net Margin | −1.53% |
| Net Margin (1Y Avg) | −11.49% |
| Net Margin (3Y Avg) | −3.40% |
| Net Margin (5Y Avg) | 0.80% |
| Net Margin (10Y Avg) | 5.74% |
| Revenue Growth (1Y) | 3.72% |
| Revenue Growth (3Y) | 2.00% |
| Revenue Growth (5Y) | 2.49% |
| Net Income Growth (1Y) | — |
| Net Income Growth (3Y) | — |
| Net Income Growth (5Y) | — |
| Net Income Growth (10Y) | — |
| EPS Growth (TTM) | — |
| EPS Growth (1Y) | — |
| EPS Growth (3Y) | — |
| EPS Growth (5Y) | — |
| EPS Growth (10Y) | — |
| Dividend per Share Growth (1Y) | 1.86% |
| Dividend per Share Growth (3Y) | 2.65% |
| Dividend per Share Growth (5Y) | 4.12% |
| Dividend per Share Growth (10Y) | 5.15% |
META is a better buy at this time. Plus all those SAAS stocks. ABT is ok too.