r/wallstreetbets
SpaceX (SPCX) Liquidation Event Calendar
Author shares a detailed timeline for SpaceX's (SPCX) post-IPO lockup expirations and asks whether to buy on day one or wait.
- Tiered lockup schedule prevents a massive single-day cliff unlock.
- Nasdaq 100 inclusion shortly after IPO will drive passive institutional inflows.
- 83% of insider shares unlock within 180 days, creating a heavy supply overhang.
- Earnings-contingent unlocks add uncertainty and potential selling pressure.
For personal memo:
Fixed Dates:
June 12, 2026 --- IPO
August 21, 2026 --- +70 Days, 7% unlocked, next trading day August 24
September 10, 2026 --- +90 Days, 7% unlocked, next trading day September 11
September 25, 2026 --- +105 Days, 7% unlocked, next trading day September 28
October 10, 2026 --- +120 Days, 7% unlocked, next trading day October 13
October 25, 2026 --- +135 Days, 7% unlocked, next trading day October 26
December 9, 2026 --- +180 Days, all remaining (except Musk) unlocked, next trading day December 10
June 13, 2027 --- +366 Days, Musk/Significant Investors unlocked, next trading day June 14
Undetermined Dates:
2nd full trading day after 1st earning report (2nd quarter) --- 20% unlocked, with 10% more if shares at 30% above IPO price more than 5/10 trading days after earning report
After 2nd earning report (3rd quarter) --- 28% unlocked
Note:
Before 180-Day milestone, 83% - 93% of insider shares will be unlocked, except Musk/Significant Investors. (7% \* 5 + 20% + 28% = 83%)
Nasdaq 100 inclusion date: July 8, 2026 (15 trading days after IPO)
So, all in on Day 1 or wait?
Data Source: https://global.morningstar.com/en-nd/stocks/how-spacexs-tiered-lockup-aims-help-post-ipo-trading
is this SpaceX Battle Pass? how much does it cost?
puts on musk unlock
Real mans short this shit.
A trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon, you're talking real money