r/stocks
Trump keeps saying an Iran deal is close. Markets keep believing it
Author mocks market's blind optimism on Trump's imminent Iran deal claims, which artificially suppresses oil and commodity prices.
- The market repeatedly prices in an Iran deal based on empty political rhetoric rather than actual progress.
- Commodity prices drop significantly on mere hope and remain suppressed even when deals fail to materialize.
I'm glad this is finally being talked about. It's the same thing with oil prices. "Trump says ___ is possible" and commodities will fall 5% in a day. Then, it doesn't happen and commodities...stay down?
“The market has had the hope that this is going to end any moment, any moment, any moment,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, told CNBC. “I still think it’s grabbing onto that hope.”
Feeding the dynamic is an assumption from markets and analysts that, despite the continued conflict in the Middle East, a deal will eventually be reached that ends the war and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil-shipping route.
“While geopolitical developments continue to draw large oil moves, there is some optimism that the US and Iran will reach a peace deal this month,” Deutsche Bank researchers said in a June analyst note.
How many straight months have they said that lol
oh god oh god oh god I'M SO CLOSE, KEEP GOING KEEP GOING😭
what a joke
People are dumb. 10 years later they still believe whatever shit that spews out from his mouth.
At this point it's probably the dumb algorithms used by big trading firms that are believing it and trading on it.
There's plenty of documented instances of the market crashing or surging temporarily from a hoax that tricked those trading algorithms, often spread through a twitter account. For example someone hacked the AP's twitter account over a decade ago and reported a fake story about an explosion at the White House that had injured the President, which caused the trading bots to tank the market immediately.
That’s why I don’t do short term trading. It’s insane especially with this administration.
SPY is down 4.5% in the last week, tech down much more. I’m not sure the market is really reacting to anything positive that Trump says right now.
Oil prices fell like 5% on the US claiming that they were escorting hundreds of ships through the Strait this week.
Only problem is, the numbers they're claiming are only about 50% higher than the public ones... And about 15% of pre-war volumes. They also seem to be including ships paying tolls to Iran.
It's insanity that this US administration is still being treated as credible on foreign policy by the markets.
Markets don't care
Until it doesn't believe him and ignore him like his tariff threats.
Countries are going to continue to try and hold oil lower regardless here, there is just a little ammo if Trump wants to play ugly here for now.
The likelihood that that oil top that we saw in March is surpassed is still not great here and honestly considering that Trump gets away with basically everything he does, I doubt the idea of "oil shortages that rival the 1970's" occurring.
TACO Tuesday forever.
He already 🌮 today saying blockade was fake and 240 oil vessels crossed... And yet markets ignored him lmaoo. For me so clear he had puts, now probably will buy calls for a fresh 🌮 of peace deal and inauguration of spaceX 🚀
So so so sick of this constant war for the past years. Like they do it on purpose to disrupt everything.
I’m getting a shirt that says “4ever Red” and by red I mean the red bear market we are in getting fucked by his dumb decisions
I think the market ignores it
At least in his head.
As a former military planner I’d believe an Iran deal was close if we’d done a lot more damage to them. Not that we haven’t already, any normal country run by rational people would have surrendered already. The IRGC needs to be on the brink of destruction beforehand they’ll give up their nuclear material and program… all the stuff Obama asked for before he caved to everything they asked for.
When Trump gets away with lying so many times, of course he will continue to do it. Congress will never ever summon Trump to a congressional hearing and under oath, ask him to explain all the 38 incidents where he lied, every single case with him subjected to perjury.
He literally is going to ramp up attacks, this deal is never happening because he wants a good deal but has 0 leverage.
What even is the deal?
At this point, goal post unknown
Trump is a dumbass
Manipulation people believe it
After someone cry wolf, wolf ,wolf coming three times. When the wolf comes no one will believe liar.
Does it? Or is the market just more level headed than Redditors?