r/wallstreetbets
Absurd
Wharton warns AI needs 2.7x productivity growth or it's a massive capital misallocation, mocking Jensen Huang's hype and macro risks.
- AI investment requires a 2.7x productivity miracle by 2028, otherwise it's the largest capital misallocation in history.
- Speculative capital is dangerously migrating from traditional buffers like oil reserves to overvalued AI stocks.
- Tech leaders like Jensen Huang are making absurd comparisons to hype up investments.
Two economists at Wharton just published the understatement of the decade: AI investment requires a 2.7x productivity miracle by 2028 — or it's "the largest misallocation of capital in history."
Nvidia's Jensen Huang — who sells the shovels to every speculator in this gold rush — is telling investors that buying SpaceX at IPO could be like buying Amazon early.
To match Amazon's return, SpaceX would need a market cap of $4,442 trillion.
World GDP is $124 trillion.
Meanwhile, senior energy economist Philip Verleger notes the speculative capital that used to build precautionary oil reserves has migrated. To AI stocks. To SpaceX.
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The oil buffer is six weeks from operational minimums.
And the so-called smart money is busy doing the maths that requires 36 earths.
Wharton/NBER: https://www.nber.org/papers/w35290
Verleger: https://philipverleger.substack.com/p/are-oil-markets-delusional
When you put it that way. Calls! Maybe they're pricing in the inevitable collapse of the dollar
Or earth
That would be a good time to buy the dip
The stock market participants who will give SpaceX absurd valuation are the same that gave AI absurd valuations
So CALLS!!! Get in super early (but get out before the rug pull obviously).
Have they set a date for the rugpull yet?
Yes they absolutely have. They just aren't telling anybody except their rich buddies. Know a billionaire by any chance?
We live in a world of fools. Can keep this train going for a long time
I’m going to give an honest answer to this. And I promise I’m not kidding.
How does it feel to everyone? (The non-visitors to this sub)
Because the stock market quit being about fundamentals a while ago.
SpaceX is the only company launching things. Starlink is being adopted by airlines on their planes (and it works well). Tesla kept going up for years when it should have crashed…how many times?
How much of this stuff is behind the scenes shenanigans?
How much will be about Elon getting that pay package?
Quit trying to make it make sense, because it doesn’t. You have to “use the force” in a sense, and feel your way through this.
The problem is you can't feel your way through stuff when you aren't being given all the facts. I don't know what it is, but to me it feels like we're seeing the acceleration of money laundering and fraud in US government. Now it's always been a little fraudulent, that's the nature of things but it feels like we're watching an empire be looted in plain sight and told to look away.
Just my 2c
SpaceX will be the most valuable company in the world in the next decade. Yeah Elon is s douche but if youre investing on emotion, then you deserve it.
Most of the stock market is still based on fundamentals. There are just a couple of sectors that have lost pegging. As long as you ignore the FOMO and stay out of those sectors, things are pretty much normal.
*Two bers at Wharton
FTFY
Wharton? Nerds.
SpaceX has literally been around for decades. The fact that they’re pricing themselves as this underappreciated growth story is laughable.
Datacenters in space man!
Do you like living life in a cloud of negativity?
Depends, AWS or Azure?
Gay bear
Shut up and buy calls ya dumb btch
Dont you know?: Elon Musk ‘tweeted’ – simply, in seven words: “2026 is the year of the Singularity.”. Grok is becoming sentient and will cure cancer and conjure gold bars out of thin air but only for spacex investors.
World GDP is $124 trillion.
Once SpaceX colonised Mars and every other habitable planet then 4206.9 trillion will be seen as a bargain
They provide 3 free papers per ip, try vpn
This is exactly the kind of batshit end‑of‑cycle energy you see at the top, lol. When “serious” people are out here casually hand waving needing 36 earths and a 2.7x productivity miracle in 4 years, that is not a valuation, that is a prayer.
I am not smart enough to time the pop, but I am smart enough to not be the last idiot holding calls when this musical chairs game stops.
small brain, that was his problem
Call it is
Ok call me absurd but I think SpaceX COULD be worth 4,462 trillion USD someday. Partly because inflation removes the first order of magnitude (yes it's that much), and second realistically they will be literally leagues ahead in Rocket technology, and will have the ONLY rocket that can deliver anything of size to space. That primarily translates to the first beginnings of space industry. Like mining, energy farms, etc.
However all of that, even with the absolutely boldest of bold projections assuming that AI materially moves the needle probably an order of magnitude in development speed, then maybe we could see rockets building industrial capacity in space in 10 years. Realistically it'll almost certainly be longer than that especially if war degrades technological advancement. So starting in 10 years they could begin building the industry that could become worth 4,462 trillion in my numbers. I'd wager that you need another 5 to get industry online, 5 more for proof of concept to translate into capital deployment (compressed timelines because exponential growth starts to make them blurry here)
All of that to say that I think there will be TONS of opportunities to buy SpaceX in the future, likely at valuations similar to the one we have today. If you buy today then you are saying that you believe that at now point in the future will SpaceX have a valuation less than 9xP/E. I am almost certain that once you account for dollar purchasing power change and compare to a standard etf investment that SpaceX will not outperform over the next 10 years.
One space rock full of gold would make this happen
I’ve read a similar analysis, the conclusion is that oil is way below the price level it should be as storage is being consuming very fast