r/nio
The ridiculous mythical narrative around NIO share price and risks
The author strongly defends NIO against bearish narratives on China's economy and US bans, highlighting its affluent customer base, BaaS advantage, and robust domestic sales.
- NIO targets affluent consumers less affected by macroeconomic slowdowns.
- BaaS option reduces upfront costs by 20-25%, providing a competitive edge.
- Sales growth is robust and primarily driven by high-end models.
The two most absurd arguments from some
Analysts on why NIO share price is suppressed are testimony to the dirty games they play to manipulate the stock or to their utter stupidity!
Argument 1 :
Chinese economy has slowed down and unemployment has increased. Who gives a shit ! Remember China is 1.4 million, TWICE THE US & EUROPE COMBINED. NIO is catering to affluent, well educated population in higher income bracket who rarely are affected by economic slow downs . This is BYD problem. NIO’s customer base (except for firefly) is not the blue color workers or new grads!
Here are the real China stats:
Overall Urban Rate: The official nationwide surveyed urban unemployment rate typically hovers around 5.2%.
Youth Unemployment: The 16–24 age bracket (excluding students) was officially recorded at roughly 16.9% in the spring, while the rate for those aged 25 to 29 reached 7.7%.
Adult Workers: unemployment rate for the core working-age population (ages 25 to 59) remains much lower, generally staying around 4.1%.
Also NIO’s BaaS purchase option reduces the upfront cost by about 20-25 % giving NIO a significant advantage to
lure buyers to NIO cars.
Furthermore , how idiotic to even dwell on slow Chinese economy narrative ,when in reality NIO sales are going through the roof in each quarter and the sales growth is driven mostly by the most expensive models !
Argument 2;
US government/Pentagon black listing NIO and banning from selling to US ! Helloooo, wasn’t NIO already banned from US through 100 % tariffs??? NIO has already declared no interest in US market and even no interest in expanding in Europe until tariffs are reduced to negligible levela ! NIO’s incredible growth is in domestic market which is twice the total of US&EU combined. So who gives a shit about the US ban .
yes but until usa hedge funds start buying the stock in volume, the stock price won't move.
200 here, 300 there from retail ain't moving shit
That’s true..unfortunately. However when they pull the trigger, it will move massively without any warning
Argument 2
I’ll approach this from a different angle.
According to our media, China has been “systematically collapsing” every single year for about two decades now. The level of propaganda is so low that around three years ago I stopped reading The Economist after coming across an article that basically tried to prove that 5 < 2 — arguing that China’s economy was “shaking badly”, that 5% GDP growth was a sign of weakness, and that China had enormous problems, while in the US 2% growth supposedly meant full economic flourishing and, unlike China, the US apparently had no serious problems at all.
This year I’ve already read several articles about how year-on-year EV sales growth is slowing in China. And yes, technically that is true: after gigantic growth, after several years of massive expansion, and after government subsidies were cut, sales growth slowed. Chinese companies are also cushioning that impact with rising exports.
As I said, several articles about this have spread all over the internet.
What nobody wrote about, however, was the decline in EV sales in the US — even though sales dropped by almost the exact same percentage, because of Trump’s idiotic policy and the removal of EV subsidies.
The data looks like this:
In China, if we look at the broader NEV category — BEVs, plug-in hybrids and extended-range EVs — retail sales were down 7.5% year-on-year in May 2026, and roughly 15% down year-on-year for the first five months of 2026.
But if we isolate pure battery-electric cars only, the picture is much less dramatic: Chinese BEV sales were actually up 3.9% year-on-year in May, and only around 9% down year-on-year for January–May.
Now compare that with the US. American EV sales fell 27% year-on-year in Q1 2026, after collapsing 36% year-on-year in Q4 2025, mainly after the federal EV tax credit was removed.
And yet the media narrative is completely different. When China slows after years of explosive growth, it is presented as a crisis. When the US EV market falls harder, after a politically self-inflicted removal of subsidies, somehow it receives a fraction of the attention.
Then much worse situation in US - zero media attention. A little bit better sitiation in China - China collapsing again.
The problem are in people. They are not verifying anything. Even AI can answer any question or provide us pure numbers in matter in minutes or even seconds. Until majority of us will believe 5<2 China investors will have problems.
Yes, as all open minded , unbiased, well read people can understand, every negative opinion against China is utter bs and is totally political propaganda with an abhorrent agenda behind it ! As someone who has visited China several times for business and leisure, I have seen with my eyes own eyes and have come to the conclusion that west is now decades behind in every issue you can imagine ! Because we are still spending the money in the wrong places , cutting down on eduction, R&D (except on weapons !!) , dealing with crime, polarized with racism, lacking independent national policies, busy transferring wealth away from people to the top 1 % … and the list goes on and on !
On the issue of EV sales slowing down in China , this in fact makes NIO even more superior compared to domestic competition who cannot anymore compete with NIO on price alone;
\- NIO’s sales growing even more than when China had bigger subsidies on EV purchases , let alone slowing
\- NIO Sales growth is mostly on their most expensive models
Bottom line; NIO is no more a small startup building its business ; it has become a dominant force which has established itself a EV leader in technology , quality , safety. No going back for NIO ; sales reaching half a million this year , profitable every year going forward !
Argument 1:
It’s actually even better than you suggest. Looking only at fully electric cars,
China sold 7.88 million of them in 2025.
The entire EU sold 1.88 million,
and the US sold 1.27 million.
China accounts for roughly 70% of total BEV sales across these three markets.
EU its about 20%
US is only 10%.
From the perspective of Chinese companies, the European market is becoming less and less attractive: it is less than 20% of the Chinese market, the region is rapidly getting poorer, it is extremely fragmented, and it comes with tons of regulations and unnecessary bureaucracy.
The US looks even weaker: it is only around 12% of the Chinese market. For years, the US pushed its corporations into every corner of the world — a military and economic empire that is now starting to lose its global dominance.
And I fully agree. For NIO, being listed by the US Department of Defense (never will understand why there us defence not attack) means absolutely nothing.
The US keeps adding companies to these lists when they are:
Technologically advanced — NIO now, Huawei before.
Companies the US cannot compete with globally — like BYD — because they can simply deliver products faster, better, and cheaper.
Absolutely right . Americans mostly but to certain degree Europeans as well have little interest in environmental policies . They’re just talk ! In terms of EV, this makes it even more important to focus on domestic market as well as other Asian markets who are hostage to oil at the moment
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Keep accumulate while u still can
Troll analyst will always be troll analyst.
It's billion, not million :)