r/stocks
Is Blackberry Primed For a Comeback?
BlackBerry's pivot to cybersecurity and physical AI, backed by QNX adoption and sustained profits, signals a compelling turnaround.
- Successful business transformation into high-margin cybersecurity and physical AI (QNX) sectors.
- Sustained profitability with 8 consecutive profitable quarters and improving EPS margins.
- Strong catalysts including analyst price target raises, share buybacks, and expanding NVIDIA partnership.
Many people still see the word “Blackberry” and automatically think of the phones. So, I decided to dig in to see what the new hype around this name is. What if I told you that they have totally transformed their company into two different sectors: cybersecurity and physical AI.
Now let’s dive into the core business of what Blackberry is mainly comprised of now. There are three segments, but only two matter. QNX which is a real time OS for safety critical systems. It is quietly already operating in 255m+ vehicles. The main customers are BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, Honda, VW, Volvo. The big partnership you don’t hear about is NVIDIA. The partnership with NVDA is expanding into robotics, medical and industrial fields.
The second core of their business is cybersecurity. The government just renewed the FEDRAMP Class D (High) which is the government’s highest cloud security level. This is the only critical event-management platform certified there.
The Numbers (FY2026)
- Revenue $549.1M, +2.7% YoY (beat by 2.2%)
- Net income $53.2 M, 9.7% margin- first sustained profit
- EPS $0.09 vs -$0.014 prior year (beat by 12%)
- 8 consecutive profitable quarters
- 120%/yr avg EPS growth over 3 years while the stock fell 5% yr. That divergence is what caught my attention.
- Put simply, this is a company turning the corner, not one promising to.
Why its moving now
- Multiple price target raises from where it currently trades at ($8.93)
- Buyback renewed: 26.8 M shares through 2027. Prior buybacks averaged $3.85 which is signaling the stock is cheap.
- QNX software mentioned at Robotics Summit on NVIDIA + Intel hardware
Now I present to you the bull case. The ASIL-D cert takes years + hundreds of millions to earn. QNX stays for the products life which can be 7-10 years in automobiles. QNX wins the parts that can’t fail. The NVIDIA partnership could speed up Blackberry’s earnings through more partnerships and higher usage. If QNX is the main backbone of anything having to do with physical AI, that would be huge. If this happens, it is definitely not priced into the stock. The buybacks signal that the company thinks the stock is undervalued at these levels.
Now let’s present some bear cases. The revenue only grew 2.7%. The whole re rating needs QNX to accelerate and that’s not in the numbers yet. This is the real risk. The current P/E is above 100x so there is no room for a miss. Embedded design wins take 2-4 years to show in revenue so partnership headlines run ahead of dollars. Another bear case is that one-off items inflate the trailing earnings. This could lead to earnings looking way better than they appear.
After digging in, I think this is more than a dead phone brand- but the next earnings report on June 25 is where we find out.
Disclosure : “I’m long BB.” Not financial advice- do your own work.
how heavy are your bags?
no comment lol
2.7% rev growth... Is that even beating inflation? Lmao.
You know its jover when this sub is talking about blackberry
The market is still operating on the hangover of Blackberry from its failed phone division and the recent pump. People hear BB and react basically the same way that everyone in this thread is
Im in for 80k at 9.2USD a share and believe this company can very reliably grow its revenue to force a market cap of \~20-30bn over the next 3-5 years. At 1bn revenue, people have to pay attention and cant just meme their way around it anymore.
So somewhere between a very nice 4-6x return on current investment, or 100% per year
There are some simple key catalysts are of course on vehicle manufacturers electing to use them, as well as drones, robots and others.
However the increased use of smart edge tech will require an RTOS that meets every requirement possible, healthcare companies and autopilot AI companies for shipping, driving and flight do not want to run the risk of a major lawsuit or product cancellation due to something as stupid as software failure. And with vibe coding these days… bring on the sloppy code that crashes all the time.
SpaceX also uses QNX afaik for the hype train afaik
It was a shit stock 10 years ago.
It’s a shit stock today.
Nokia & BB
In addition Carnie gov is supporting BB and he mentioned global relevance in Cyber a few days ago. The high level safety and security certifications is getting it widely accepted around the world. Those talking about the past or meme run in 2026 are going to miss out big time. One big announcement and stock will be at $20
P.S. not a bag holder, up over 100% and holding as a believer
We've come full circle
I mean, I guess. There are better plays out there imo
Of course. Its controversial so thats why I chose to do it first
i am also long...but not a huge position. 400 shares. i just kept buying as it dropped. deep red for like 5-6 yrs. now up like 50%. i am still long though just because the QNX stuff is in a LOT of cars. i prob should sell but meh...it's not that much money. i'll sit and watch.
Everything is priced in
Jumping out of a plane is also an interesting and high risky play, doesn’t mean you should do it
No
I think they're positioned to make an eventual device comeback if they introduce some solid designs, They never really suffered from quality decline on their phones like Nokia did. Lots of people are complaining abt Apple's decline with iPhones, and they can't sustain that monopoly forever. Who knows?
Pretty cheap buy in even now though. 🤔
Rejoining the device space anytime soon would be insanely stupid of them.
I love how you never explained why. 🤔
He's right they will never get back into the hardware side of things. Especially phones. They have no interest in it, nor does that team still exist within that company. Blackberry has been for the last 10-15 years focused on security software and RTOS. It's their turn around plan and it's been working.
The issue market wise is that they need to show solid returns for a prolonged period of time and get an abnormal amount of high earning contracts before anyone is going to jump back in. Because most people, like you, want them to make phones they haven't produced in 20 years. And if it's not the phones legacy holding them back then it's the bagholders who feel absolutely scorned by this stock and will not buy back into it due to it being swept up with meme stocks in 2021. Despite the company itself being extremely clear about it's gameplan for the past 10-15 years on it's software pivot.
The company should honestly rebrand as "QNX" or even throw back to "Research in Motion". They need to kill all ties to the cellphone. Maybe they think the name will imply a comeback story, but all evidence proves otherwise. People are very hesitant to jump in on this stock regardless of how good the news is.
Any other AI company that literally burns cash and has no prospects at all can announce a 1m contract with no certifications and get overnight investment. BB can announce, and has announced, 10 of them and have high security clearance and the stock will barely move due to poor sentiment. It's a cursed stock that has to prove itself long term to most people.
Anyways I'm up on my investment and have been for a long time. I just take a small portion of my paycheck and buy some shares from time to time because it's a good business long term unless someone dedicates the time to compete with them and no one really is on the RTOS side. Apple quite literally hired a former BB founder to build out a competitive alternative back in 2021 and cancelled the project because it wasn't cost effective to figure it out for them. This pattern has repeated a few times and the only real potential competition on the horizon is if waymo gets it's shit together.
Why would they get back into mobile devices or devices of any sort? They literally had to pivot from being a hardware company that got CRUSHED more than almost anyone not named Nokia or Palm by Google, Apple, and Samsung, and that's just who is remaining lest we forget HTC, LG, Sony Erickson (I could go on but I won't). They had to completely reinvent their business model and become a software company; it's as stupid of a decision as finding the love of your life and then going "Hey, I wonder what my ex from highhschool is up to."
Long but it’s only because I bought in at $3.89 for only $1K
true that
Robotics has a long way to go but yes
I posted this in the other investing sub I saw you x-post. So might as well reproduce it here too...
\------------
I took a small position as well--of course I bought in near peak (1K shares at $10.05 USD). Should have purchased a month earlier when I was first looking, but hadn't done DD yet.
I've spent 2+ decades in tech, and a bit of that was in embedded computing and then a related business, dealing in the exact sort of industries and customers QNX targets. I even had a bootable QNX system at one point \[decade+ ago\] to do basic hardware testing, because a customer was using QNX. So I get the "stickiness" of getting designed in and being in effectively forever.
The bit that worries me is that this ends up being what a former colleague called a "lifestyle business". They get into the companies that aren't big enough, and with difficult enough requirements, that nobody larger than BB really cares enough to chase it. They can get into those sticky businesses and sustain them. It takes a lot of work up front, but it has a payoff: they have stable, predictable, recurring revenue--and now profitability. But it makes it a LOT harder to have the explosive growth story.
The first reason I invested was the idea that they can move upstack with Alloy Kore and SDP8, potentially expanding their SAM within existing customer base of automotive. If they can expand beyond just mission-critical further into the vehicle platform, per-vehicle royalties could increase by multiples while the volume play is still slow/steady growth. The second, of course, is physical AI. A large mechanical robotic device that has the weight and power to potentially kill someone is a place where an RTOS is critical. This is the one that could be a better volume play in the next 3-5 years, causing a revenue increase by multiples. Either (or both) of those paying off could cause a re-rate.
I don't expect to make a meaningful return on this stock for several years, so I'm thinking long term. But OTOH unlike many speculative plays, the stability / lifestyle business aspect is what I expect will, at the very least, cause my investment not to crash.
The critical part of the company isnt priced in....how?
Lol that's an odd takeaway. It's probably not an entire country's fault that you lost money twice. It sounds more like the stock picker chose poorly ;)
What Canadian businesses have you invested in?
Stock market runs on vibes these days. BlackBerry fundamentals, revenue doesn't seems matter.