r/stocks
Anyone else bullish?
Author remains bullish on SPY, viewing recent pullbacks as buying opportunities for the long term despite macro concerns.
- SPY is far from overvaluation, needing to reach 830+ to be considered overvalued.
- Money is flowing back into stocks from gold and bonds, as seen in SPY/GLD and SPY/VGSH ratios.
- Historical bull channel since 2009 remains intact, showing strong market resilience.
- June is historically not a good month for the S&P 500, suggesting potential short-term weakness.
- Market recently surged over 20% in two months, making a pullback technically due.
Feel like I’m seeing a lot of people suggesting there’s a downturn coming but I feel like we’re quite a way from that (since 2009 it’s been following the bull channel up minus the Covid hard drop but it regained that within 2 weeks). IMO SPY would need to be near 830+ (15% from where we’re at) to be near overvaluation). Ratio wise SPY to GLD (gold) and SPY to VGSH (bonds) there’s money flowing back into stocks since the Iran war almost correction in March. The market just got on a tear coming out of that (20%+ over 2 months) and was due for a pullback. Also my bias that June usually isn’t a good month for the S&P. Good time to drop some money in if you need to for some intermediate/long term horizon and if SPY drops further to \~712 (6% pullback) be ready for a turn up.
Wish I could post some of my analysis but I don’t have the option to attach images🤷🏼♂️
Sir, we don’t allow investors here. We only cater to day traders and doomers.
What about Day Doomers?
I am not so sure. The current administration is wasting and spend $ like there is no tomorrow. Inflation, employment data formulas and criteria are not the same criteria used before. It used to have a recession every 7 years now using low interest rate to allow almost free money flowing is going to be so costly when fails.
And the only solution to all of that is printing more money
Calls
The key is knowing when, which no one does. And what’s the opportunity cost for forever bearing a bear
Covid was not your typical crash although with today’s influx of retail traders via apps perhaps future crashes will be short lived as well but I wouldn’t trade on that.
Could be recent bearish sentiment just healthy profit taking because same retailers pushed valuations beyond fact and same retailers who bought at or near the top first to dump when prices drop.
There’s also this nonsense with SPCX and the meme craze surrounding it. Institutions perhaps took profits and set aside dry powder to take advantage of retailers this Friday. Not like greed ever stopped anyone instituting from taking advantage of Greater Fools
I whole heartedly expect this bubble to pop but not this week or last. Gap up eerily similar to 1999 and now influx of IPO who likely see this as a window to get in before it pops and generate operating revenue and reserves for the long winter ahead.
Why I’m swing trading and chasing the bottom vs seeking profits. Much easier for me to sell and buy lower and inadvertently find bottom before and after it pops then trying to fabricate profits or thinking I know more than the market. Buying the bottom and taking profits along the way how I play. No swinging for the fence. That’s always burned me. Take it where I find it and try not to panic. Latter I’m still perfecting.
Reddit has to be full of the most bipolar people I have ever encountered. 1 week everyone's super bullish, the next they're super bearish. Reddit is full of bots that don't know any better and carry on conversations by saying controversial things. Just chill and let the market do what it does and hold on for the ride.
Username checks out…
Are you scoffin at me right now Scoff?
AVGO is a durable profit monster, and they are not slowing down regardless of the stock price.
I’m long, like 5+. Accumulating Google.
Rest is on index funds.
Same I believe Google is a great buy over the long term
It's not going to be a popular take while you're on reddit.com, but until you see live proof otherwise, the real risk is when Trump is out of office.
It is what it is.
The market goes up that's what it does
AVGO is not a mag7…
Correct, they actually have a larger market cap than TSLA and META though
yeah this is what all the "eternally bullish longterm" people fail to realize... you could be in the red for 25 damn years if you buy at the wrong time.
A little green and everyone is smiling
Posted this in the morning while it was still flat so…
I stand corrected then, it was a nice turn around later in the day. Sold some Sandisk and added a few shares of Microsoft
TBH I agree with you. Red day=posts are complaining about market manipulation, overprinting, blah, blah, blah. Green Day=no one says anything cause their happy with the gains.
well i hope your money is out of the stock market or you might have to dust off the ol' work apron
Meh, I’ve derisked my portfolio and continue to do so as I age.
But one must have a portion of their portfolio in the market, in order to provide growth & combat inflation.
It would take a bear market of historical proportion & US entitlements to go to zero, to set me off course.
I sleep very well at night. ☯️
Dips get bought up 100% and the market is pretty much always at ath. A bear market just doesn't make any sense. The news will tell you otherwise but basic statistics say otherwise
Aka Magnificent 7. Name do rotate.
I think we have years of a bull market left based on Presidential election cycle data, year 2 of the cycle being the worst performing of the 4 according to Judd Hirsch and The Stock Trader’s Almanac.
There’s no other place to go and the economy is chugging along.
I made this post 3 hours ago. Market is now POPPING. This is why ya'll on stocks are forever broke. Yeah Trump wants a second term, he wont get it but he does WaNT one
Are you dumb? He is in his second term already
DCA works unless it does crash (as in break this bull market) like 01 or 07. But I agree there’s a lot of know it alls once something happens.
Oh when it goes crash you’ll see an absolute shit show. Been mostly a bull market year on year for a couple of decades and any drops have been short lived.
It’s just when that hits….
I mean it’ll hit as some point, I don’t care to guess when exactly that’ll be and how far the market moves up before that happens
I don’t think it’ll have any effect, if most of that is day trading and $2k+ is a speck of dust in the wind in the size of the market. Heck even 100k is nothing.
But retailers after Robinhood were still a speck of dust yet so much dust it changed the market dynamics. The money flow hasn’t changed. Dane total account balance. Volume about to change. That’s the liquidity I’m talking about. They now have the power to screw up unlimited times
True there will just be more volume, not necessarily volume moving the price outside of the day. Screw up unlimited times until their account is gone
That's what I'm getting at, yet their screw ups might drive prices down.
Always bullish long term. I keep buying every week but always keep a lot of cash on the side too in case I’m wrong.
I’m imaging how good those charts look you’d post if you could.
Wow! The land of make believe!
This is bang on. Get as much money invested as you can, it will be a K-shaped economy. Corporate profits and the US stock market are at major inflection point. The displacement of human labor by AI is a gigantic commercial opportunity regardless of the human impact.
I react to what the market does not what I feel like it should do.
Right now I’m neutral. Could go either way.
I agree, learned my lesson again and again the market will tell me if I’m right not the other way around. Neutral for what reasons if you don’t mind sharing? I’m basing my bullish solely off technical indicators (helps me keep emotion out of my decisions)
It's indeed weird because positioning is not right for a prolonged correction.. you don't have a bunch of people leveraged to the gills. You also have negative sentiment and none of these are really what you see around tops. But you could get sector rotation. Like the market really hasn't done that well. One single sector and things around it have done well. So you got a lot of gamblers pushing one thing. If the market rotates and broadens out that would be ridiculously bullish.