r/wallstreetbets
Echostar, SATS (Basically 100% SPACEX Proxy) Factcheck with Official sources
Bullish DD on SATS as a SpaceX proxy; incoming cash from AT&T and SpaceX deals covers debt, leaving massive equity value.
- Massive cash inflows from AT&T and SpaceX deals will easily cover the $24B total debt.
- SATS holds a significant stake in SpaceX, acting as a pure proxy with huge upside.
- The company retains other valuable spectrum assets to be sold in the future.
I want to present to everyone here clear facts and analysis on the stock. I am seeing many wrong garbage ai information out there. I am going to link every source here. Let me know if you find any errors
Official Sources:
|Echostar's latest quarterly report|https://ir.echostar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/echostar-announces-financial-results-three-months-ended-march-6|Total Debt - 24B Operation Profit - 400M Interest expense - 561M Net Income - (146M)|
|:-|:-|:-|
|SpaceX Deal Sept 8, 2025|https://ir.echostar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/echostar-announces-spectrum-sale-and-commercial-agreement-spacex|8.5B cash 8.5B SpaceX based on Sept 8, 2025 valuation|
|SpaceX Deal Extended on Nov|https://ir.echostar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/echostar-agrees-sell-full-unpaired-aws-3-spectrum-license|2.6B stock based on same Sept 8, 2025 valuation|
|ATT Deal|https://about.att.com/story/2025/echostar.html|23B ATT deal, will close this month|
Total Debt
24B
Cash
23B from ATT deal set to close this month
8.5 from SpaceX set to close Nov 2027
SpaceX Stock
According to Barron's, https://www.barrons.com/articles/spacex-echostar-stock-spectrum-ed8f7f59, it is worth \~2% of SpaceX's market cap. Priced at 31B with 1.75T SpaceX Valuation.
Other assets:
Echostar has some less valuable Spectrum left, which they intend to sell in the upcoming years. I couldn't find find a reliable/good source for the valuation of these Spectrum.
https://broadbandbreakfast.com/echostar-aiming-to-sell-remaining-terrestrial-spectrum-by-sept-2028/
Business:
Echostar is a dying business, but it is not losing money. From the financial reports, you will see they are (14B) under last 12 months, but that is almost entirely due to interest expense, which will be retired with ATT Deal. In the latest quarterly earnings, they have 400M operating profit. I expect this to decline as they lose more subscribers. This part of the company is insignificant compared to its SpaceX stock.
Summary and Total Valuations
|31B|in SPACEX stock (assuming 1.75T market cap)|
|:-|:-|
|31.5B|Cash from ATT + SpaceX deals|
|(24)B|Total Debt|
|Unknown|Remaining Spectrum Assets|
|\>0|Echostar Business (positive operating profit)|
In the worst case scenario, assuming the Business and remaining assets are worth 0,
the company is essentially SpaceX + 7.5B cash.
The fundamental valuation in this scenario for Echostar is thus:
31 (SpaceX stock at 135 dollars) + 7.5 = 38.5B, or \~ $132 per share
Assuming 5B Business + assets
$150 per share
Assuming 10B assets
$167 per share
For people who want to invest in SpaceX as proxy, this is a stock that essentially almost entirely SpaceX. It has no net debt, and an almost worthless business. 70-80% of its stock is just its SpaceX shares. We are looking at Yahoo/Alibaba 2.0.
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