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Arbor Realty Trust - Short Squeeze Near-Term - Long Term Stabilizing
Investor summaryBullish
Author is bullish on ABR, citing large block buys, falling short interest, management's leverage reduction, and expected rate recovery.
Bull points
- Significant block buying and decreasing short interest indicate a potential near-term bottom and short squeeze.
- Management is actively repositioning 100% LTV assets to lower leverage and mitigate risk.
- Expected macroeconomic stabilization, including rate recovery and dividend stabilization, supports a 1-2 year recovery.
Post body
Arbor Realty trust has seen some major block buys the past two weeks. Short interest is decreasing at these levels as the Risk/Reward to bet against this REIT deteriorates. I'm calling a near-term bottom on these shares. Last week we saw the stock spike 8% on a 1 million share buy in 1 hour.
Ivan Kaufman continues to spearhead repositioning 100% LTV assets for future sale to lower leverage.
Going to continue building position - bet on 1-2 year recovery of rates post IRAN war conclusion in next few months and stabilization of dividend.
Price Target: $8.00 with current holding of 750,000 shares.
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