r/wallstreetbets
SpaceX: People are getting this IPO wrong
SpaceX's IPO is an AI trade with a negative P/E due to xAI losses, risking index credibility while Berkshire wisely stays private.
- SpaceX is no longer a pure space play but an AI trade with xAI losing over $4B in Q1.
- The $1.75T valuation has a negative P/E ratio, breaking traditional valuation frameworks.
- Fast-tracking such IPOs risks the credibility of indices like Nasdaq and investors' money.
The SpaceX IPO, expected tomorrow, is being viewed as a catalyst for space companies with its highlighted launches of vehicles, as implied by its own name. However, the company, due to the xAI merger, is no longer a pure space play or, in my opinion, a space play at all. This IPO is in fact a broader test of: the future of the stock market, the AI trade, and the indices.
P/E ratio considerations have been left far behind, as Tesla and others still trade at multiples of their earnings and have remained within that framework through several market cycles now. However, the recent run up in the Nasdaq and changes in how valuations are viewed, Meta and Microsoft sitting in the low 20s, etc., may have a ripple effect as this 1.75 trillion dollar negative P/E ratio giant hits the market.
As an AI trade due to xAI, I truly do not believe that anyone with any significant capital is going to buy SpaceX now without first validating xAI, a company that lost over 4 billion dollars in Q1 of this year. While a significant detriment to its valuation and future prospects, it also makes up a huge portion of their total earnings. The old adage that you have to spend money to make money falls apart when you consider that there are plenty of examples of spent money being lost money, such as bankrupting a casino...
The indices. I may be alone in this, but have the indices ever differed THIS drastically on a stock inclusion? The SPY and QQQ have been basically mirroring each other for years, with baked in discrepancies due to some inclusion criteria. However, the Nasdaq is, again in my opinion, placing its reputation on the line by even considering fast tracking SpaceX. By deciding to fast track it and any upcoming IPOs, ie Anthropic and OpenAI, they are willingly risking their credibility and investor's money, like a wallstreetbets shitposter (muah).
Not to name drop, but Berkshire is holding cash and acquiring pieces of this AI future privately, intentionally avoiding red flags like SpaceX and circumventing the boards that pass rule changes like this.
In the event SpaceX moons in its first few weeks, Oracle and other AI plays will most likely be sleeper plays compared to more obvious but riskier space stonks like RKLB, BA, LMT, ASTS, etc., as I could see these falling shortly after IPO as the narrative moves to its AI expenditure and corrupt, negatively reviewed leadership and work environment.
No shares, no options. Cash. Good luck.
REPOST: Donald Trump just pumped the stock market for this IPO. The ultimate regard and stock manipulator strikes again.
https://preview.redd.it/aicozppkxo6h1.jpeg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ce491573dccd486f8a745193dc9f61bb06b875a9
OP:
https://preview.redd.it/ot2yof55xo6h1.jpeg?width=946&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cbb01b8c876cc49e3bdd6110c1eefc4acbeeb4d0
Where have you been?
Did you confuse what sub you're in? I don't care about any of that. I have money in spcx proxies that are ripping right now. I don't give a fuck about spcx past Wednesday.
Sitting cash in this market, ain’t no way anyone should be listening to anything you have to say.
In an overblown bull market funded by 5 companies all trading money around. What a joke of a comment. And I've been all cash since this morning, I'm in and out of the market all the time. I'm out right now.
Ok brokie
Sure
Great addition to the post! So much insight! Wow!
Feels like you hate money. Remind me tomorrow after close
I don’t have much money but just added $400 to my roth IRA to buy 2 shares tomorrow. is that a dumb decision? i did buy a few shares of Tesla back years ago when everyone online was saying they would be out of business within the year and it’s actually made some money. I also think he’s crazy but actually a cool guy.
lol buying SpaceX in a Roth with your pennies and dimes. Please get off Reddit. Your on wsb might as well depot onto a crypto gambling site bud.
I would not buy it for term now but to flip you have a good chance to make some profit
People went berzerk buying a 3rd tier fake meme crypto coin with infinite supply because this guy pumped it
Imagine what they will do pure sentiment trading something that actually has a business
If you watch Musk's interview (yesterday or so, just in time for Friday), you will get a very short and true version of the "prospectus". SpaceX is listing not as a space company, but as the ultimate datacenter builder company. The product is computer racks in space - without power and water constraints, without protests and lawsuits, even without wars (as UAE datacenters have recently discovered). He wants to put about 1 standard rack worth of computers on a satellite at 600\~800km orbit, connect it via Starlink, and scale production of such satellites to the material inputs constraints - metals and such. That is where the money will be going. He wants to pull in all the AI build-up capital (and eat OpenAI's Stargate funding), and IPO enables selling marketable loans to all those bagholders locked in private capital funds. Rockets are a side business now - to put all those satellites in orbit.
https://preview.redd.it/cnuekzr1zo6h1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=0208534f10b2d6d65d33c9dc17f284f73d103031
That's all getting priced in now but how many years is that gonna take? Plus Musk has been know for underestimating delivery times by a half decade.
It is better if you watch it yourself. He says things there that have consequences he doesn't point out. It is not going to happen the way he wants: the satellite production scaling he wants is exponential, which is incompatible with material supply chain, so it cannot happen and it will not happen. But it will create the currently missing case for expansion of material supply chain. None of that matters for SPCX stock price though. It is pure regardium that will make it spike up, then drop down - same as with a few other things that went through that cycle. I am not touching it as I am not fast enough, but others may be, and institutional algos will definitely take that money on the way up and down. That is their lambo day.
Musk said he would keep SpaceX private since like, the beginning of the company because he didn’t want to bow to shareholders. But that changed last year.
They merged xAI with SpaceX in Feb of this year.
He still won't bow to shareholders, because he owns all Class A shares basically. Ret.. investors in the company will own mostly Class B shares with almost no voting rights.
i have been saying this for a week. cash gang is right (my 1.5 million in liquid bills, ready for this thing to go tits up) better believe i'll ride the green wave of other stocks, but not SPCX - you couldn't pay me to get in on that.
Bro the market "opened green" today and touched 7257 before ripping 120 points into the close on pure SpaceX hopium. That's not strength. That's the oldest trick in the book. Pump the green tape dragon bong into the close so retail wakes up tomorrow feeling confident and YOLO's their life savings into SPCX at $200 when insiders got it at $135.
from what im reading we got $100 billion in retail orders chasing $22.5 billion in shares available to them (4% of the stock is for "sale" and 30% of that is allocated to retail, so about 22.5B). we are talking Four times oversubscribed. The people who didn't get their allocation at $135 are going to buy it at ANY price tomorrow morning because they can't stand watching it go up without them and want to tell everyone at the friday beer pong table they own SPCX.
Meanwhile institutions are sitting on $52.5 billion worth of shares they got at $135 with their sell orders already loaded for the retail pump (while they dump).
30% retail allocation on the largest IPO in human history. Elon literally said he wants retail to hold long term so institutions can exit without crashing it. He said the quiet part out loud and you regards are still lining up.
Oracle just dropped 27% from its recent high on june 1st on RECORD EARNINGS. it is fucking down almost 50% from its All-Time-High back in Sept 2025. All because the AI spending circular loop is cracking and nobody cares because SpaceX goes to the moon tomorrow. Am i right?
Cash gang isn't paper hands in this situation. Cash gang is knowing which side of the trade you're on.
I'll be watching from the sidelines with my popcorn while you fund the exits regards. 🍿
Not financial advice. I'm just a guy who sees the setup and won't be left holding the bag once institutions are done with you.
Holy shit. It's Chad Dickens.
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exit liquidity with a 2% retail allocation
4%. \distant oooos and aaahhhs\
Lot of words to say absolutely nothing of value.
Completely missed on all fronts.
I understand what you are saying, but the timeframe is different for me. I'm looking at this as a week (maybe 2 week) play. I dont care where it goes in the next few quarters to years because I dont care about the fundamentals. I care about the demand vs supply.
Blackrock, sovereign wealth funds, etc, have placed in orders of $5billion. Thats real capital. Real Demand from some of the wealthiest people on the planet that want exposure. Books are 4x over (possibly 5x. We'll find out later today hopefully). Now I'm looking at allocation cuts. Did these institutions receive all their shares they've requested? Or only partial fills? I've heard some retail say they've only received 20% of the shares they've requested. If so, then you bet some of those people will want to buy the stock at open.
After that, lets see where the stock opens. If it opens or dips under $200, I'm possibly buying depending on pullback volume, and how strong the bulls push it back up. Either way, I am sure as hell not shorting this tomorrow or the following week (especially when options open next Tuesday)
In the event SpaceX moons in its first few weeks
Moons how, exactly?
Goes from a $2T market cap to a $50T market cap? A company worth more money than the amount of money on earth?
Tesla is valued at 1.5t with a PE of 350. SpaceX could hit any valuation in this cooked algo market.
Tesla's PE of 350 is definitely absurd, but what's even more absurd than that is SpaceX's PE of infinity.
All I understood was buy high