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r/valueinvestingr/valueinvesting· u/iloveaccounting64· 2d agoDiscussion 0

The real reason ABDE is a value trap is because of this sub

Investor summaryBullish

This sub in general absolutely sucks at stock picking and stock analysis.

Bull points
  • If a company is going nowhere and topline growth is drying up due to the AI headwind, maybe don’t touch it?
  • Yall jump into a name just because it’s cheap and hold the bags for years when convincing yourself it will pay off eventually when in reality only luck will bring you back to breaking even.
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Post body

This sub in general absolutely sucks at stock picking and stock analysis. Yall can’t read a company even if your lives depended on it.

If a company is going nowhere and topline growth is drying up due to the AI headwind, maybe don’t touch it? Yall jump into a name just because it’s cheap and hold the bags for years when convincing yourself it will pay off eventually when in reality only luck will bring you back to breaking even. All the intel stock holders eventually made money because they were LUCKY, it had nothing to do with their conviction.

Discussion · top comments29 selected
u/Good-Bid-7325 30· 2d ago

They beat revenue, beat earnings and raised full year guidance. Absolutely regarded post.

u/Beginning-Novel-4213 13· 2d ago

Yeah i have no idea what OP is talking about? They grew the top line nearly 13% YoY and are guiding \~12% YoY top line growth for the full year. They’ve been growing 10-11%/year for the past few years

u/Orangekale 1· 2d ago

ADBE is down after hours. I don’t think people can rely on numbers only. Ignoring headwinds and (lack of) moat is done at ones own risk.

u/TheBestOfAllTylers 1· 2d ago

So didn't it technically slow a little if you take out the Semrush acquisition results? Q/Q. Or did I read that wrong?

u/CulturedWhale 12· 2d ago

Problem with this sub is there are dumbass applying value investing to a 5 min stock movement and casino mindset

u/Young-faithful 1· 2d ago

If they hadn’t announced CFO leaving for Marvel, I think we’d be up

u/rubmybud 22· 2d ago

If someone else makes money = they were lucky

If I make money = im a genius

If someone else loses money = they are dumb

If I lose money = market is irrational

u/someguy-79 10· 2d ago

Just like INTC, GOOG, etc, etc. This sub never has a good read on an out-of-favor name that doesn't fit the narrative.

u/asianlongdong 1· 2d ago

Those are most definitely exceptions and Intel was extraordinarily lucky… would not pat yourself on the back for that one at all dude

u/someguy-79 1· 2d ago

I never owned and still don't own Intel. The point I'm making is people love to jump on the bandwagon of "that's a value trap" and go with the momentum, and sound smart parroting that narrative. I can think of at least 5 or 10 names that in the past year were out-of-favor that suddenly the narrative changed for very little reason and the stock doubled within 6 months.

u/WarmFaithlessness946 10· 2d ago

I’m buying like there is no tomorrow, 400 shares at avg 250, the beat revenue, earnings and raised full year guidance , this is free money over the long term , like UNH , NFLX at 180 , META at 90

u/Born_Expression_1356 5· 2d ago

Yeah , amazing company trading at ridicolous valuations, this is the most obvious buy in the market rn

u/hydraByte 9· 2d ago

What are you on about? Revenue growth is at 12.7% instead of the 9.8% expected, and is on an uptrend over the last few quarters, which is indicating that their AI strategy is likely working.

The only reason ADBE is down as far as I can tell is because they announced the CFO departure in their earnings report, like they did for the CEO last quarter (which tanked their stock then as well). Adobe sabotaged the narrative for their own earnings report, but the actual numbers are pretty great and show a pattern of increasing growth, not diminishing growth.

u/notreallydeep 7· 2d ago
Adbe is toast.

toast is it's own company, ticker TOST 🤦♂️

u/notreallydeep 7· 2d ago

yup, yup

that's true

same

I agree

yeah

anyway, after months of being bearish I went long ADBE before the print.

tough.

u/WarmFaithlessness946 5· 2d ago

Bro you have no idea about what Value / quality investing is , in holding this bag and  im proud , 400 shares at avg 250, tomorrow i hope it falls to 200 so im gonna buy another 200-250 shares

u/iloveaccounting64 1· 2d ago

They are not value nor quality if they need to buy Canva or figma to go anywhere. At the end of the day, value investing is about studying businesses, not tracking P/E multiples.

u/MASH12140 5· 2d ago

That’s the funny part. I’d bet most that made money in this market literally threw darts and have no idea how to read balance sheets. 🤣

u/Eye-Fast 5· 2d ago

Starting my position tomorrow. Same setup as when i bought Google at 150$ Only much cheaper with a forward p/e of 8!!!!

u/Ron-Erez 4· 2d ago

You seem to be quite an expert. Do you have any stock suggestions or stock analysis to share besides generalizing about everyone on the sub? How are you able to read the minds of everyone on the sub? I agree that posts like yours really don't contribute anything besides the use of "Yall". That is pretty cool.

u/notreallydeep 3· 2d ago

I hate him purely on a personal level. have you listened to him speak?

u/TheTorshee 1· 2d ago

Should I be worried as a MRVL investor that they just named him CFO?

u/notreallydeep 1· 2d ago

Only if you want to watch their investor days, I'm sure Dan is a fine CFO outside of that 😂

u/MoistAd4952 1· 2d ago

OP has gone thru capitulation…

u/ValueInvesting-ModTeam 1· 2d ago

No Low-Effort Posts - All stock posts must contain at least a basic explanation of the company or some financial information. It doesn't have to be a full DCF or investment thesis, but state what YOU like/dislike about the stock, don’t just ask other people to do research for you.

Simple beginner questions about value investing are welcome. “Low Effort” is at the discretion of the moderators. Short stock questions/recommendations are appropriate as comments in our pinned Weekly Megathread.

Consider posting in the Weekly Megathread

u/BuffersAndBeta 1· 2d ago

I’m not willing to underwrite the freemium acquisition channel for Adobe. If they had to go that direction, I feel like they are seeing trouble on the horizon.

IMO, that’s the main reason market is selling off.

I’m waiting for the q and a right now, but my default is to let go of most of my position at a loss.

u/SelfMastery__ 1· 2d ago

I will never touch NVO or adbe again… two of the most cursed “value investing” stocks out there.. maybe sprinkle in PayPal in there as well

u/ashm1987 1· 2d ago

Don't forget LULU and NKE lol

u/iloveaccounting64 1· 2d ago

I didn’t touch this name. I am just laughing