r/stocks
Trying to make sense of SpaceX's valuation based on other company valuations
Author argues SpaceX's $1.75T valuation is unjustified; SOTP analysis shows Starlink and xAI are overvalued vs peers.
- Starlink's implied $1.1T valuation is absurd compared to telecom peers like T-Mobile and Verizon.
- xAI's implied $0.3T valuation is unjustified when compared to Tencent or Reddit.
SpaceX gets their revenue from Starlink (61%), space launches (21%), and xAI (17%)
At a $1.75 trillion valuation, that's saying Starlink is a $1.1 trillion business, space is $0.4 trillion, and xAI is $0.3 trillion
The Starlink valuation is ridiculous: T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T are all at $0.2 trillion. Comcast is $0.1 trillion
xAI is ridiculous as well. That's saying they're as valuable as Tencent and Bytedance/Tik Tok at +$0.3 trillion. Reddit is worth just $32 billion and think it's better than xAI
The space business I can't speak much to and think it's a premium, but not ridiculous since Palantir has a similar valuation for having a wide moat as a government contractor without any real competition
Starlink & xAI is enough to tell me the business isn't worth $1.75 trillion based on the sum of the parts
Stop trying to make sense of it. Play the volatility is all I can say lol, def not a long term hold at these valuations imo
yea idk why people are trying to look at this from a valuation perspective... it's a greater fool stock. The people who buy this are only buying it because they think someone will be dumb enough to buy it for more than they will. Nothing more.
There is no economic sense. It’s market manipulation + the cult of Musk.
world is in the hands of manipulative/dishonest people.
And millions of stupid brainless cult people.
So that’s not how you value a company.
Seriously…. Different parts of the company will be “worth” different valuation multiples. Compared to peers in the space/rocket industry SpaceX trades cheaply
No reason to try. It has everything to do with pension plans and 401k's being FORCED to buy.
They will sell after 5 days. Then you guessed it!
Retail left holding the bags once dump. Government will bail you out though with your own money.... lol
Don’t waist your time 😂
Sorry, we're removing this post because it's a duplicate, or extremely similar, to another that was already posted.
We appreciate the effort but we don't need multiple posts that cover the same topic.
Tesla has like a 1.5T market cap with less than 100B revenue the past year. You can't use logic with Musk companies.
I want exposure eventually not tomorrow. Same with CBRS still waiting on that one too. Buy after earning when you get to see specifics.
Stop trying to apply logic - none of this logical. Its another Elon bet. Thats all it is.
The closest thing I can think of is one of the exploration ear companies from 300-400 years ago
Wall Street is pricing extreme growth in their AI division, over 300% revenue growth for next year. They’ve priced xAI as the most lucrative aspect of the offering. We’ll see what happens.
Fan boys do not care, they will bid everything up because they believe.
Their revenue from xAI just went up a lot, contracts with Anthropic and Google will bring in $25 billion per year. xAI is leasing room on its servers to these companies, the contracts are signed. Right away the income from xAI exceeds what SpaceX makes from launches for customers and from Starlink.
It's been said that Tesla is a computer company that makes cars. SpaceX is now a computer company that makes rockets. As with so many things, the stock market is based on what the future value of a company might be - Sam tries to figure out what some else thinks another someone else thinks the future value may be. And that's about the next generation of Starlinks, direct to cell, and space-based AI. If AI is a bubble then space AI is the foamiest part. If not - because they're vertically intedgrted and will now the rocket that sends up satellites they make for themselves SpaceX is probably the only company that can make it work.
According to an analyst who makes a lot of sense your percentages are way off. Check out the Ellie In Space YT channel for a recent long video on this.
Elon Musk's xAI operates "Colossus," which is widely regarded as one of the largest single supercomputer installations globally. It was built using 150,000 H100s, 50,000 H200s, and 30,000 GB200s