r/stocks
I am not buying SPCX tomorrow and this is the exact math that changed my mind
Author skips SPCX IPO, citing extreme 95x P/S valuation, $30B annual cash burn, and 85% insider voting control as indefensible.
- Projected strong revenue growth of 30% annually over the next two years.
- Fundamentally strong underlying business that the author respects.
- Extreme initial valuation at 95x price-to-sales implies a price decline even in best-case scenarios.
- Massive $30 billion annual cash burn and significant net losses.
- Severe corporate governance risks with one individual holding 85% voting power and zero board accountability.
But this is why I got off the train,i will be sharing lots of numbers so prepare urself,at $1.77 trillion and $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue, SPCX opens at 95x price to sales. Lets be generous and assume 30% revenue growth for the next two years,it gets you to roughly $31.5 billion in revenue by end of 2027. even if the market still gives it a frothy 50x multiple at that point which would already be among the highest of any public company and the valuation would be around $1.58 trillion and thats an 11% decline from today's IPO price two years from now in a best case scenario that requires flawless execution.
And thats before accounting for the $30 billion annual cash burn, the $4.94 billion net loss in 2025 or the fact that one man with 85% of the votes and zero accountability to the board
I like SpaceX as a company but i just dont like it at this price on day one so i will be waiting for the lock up expiry in six months when insiders can sell and the price actually reflects reality. Might look stupid if it rips but i am fine with that.
Am I missing something here or is the valuation just genuinely indefensible at open?
Not financial advice.
Lol
I honestly laughed at this
Haha, that makes sense
STOP.
He is the Illuminated.
Just buy the stock and abide by his word.
Blame your player trolling you. Some people have RPG players making an effort and going for non-silly achievements
I’m already 12 shares in so let’s just see how this plays out for science.
As a trade if you could get allocation, fantastic, sell on the pop and make your money. If you didn’t get allocation in my opinion you wait and see, and you’ll get an opportunity at or below the ipo level before the EOY imo.
this aged well
usually it's a week or two, unless you read that somewhere.
The analysis is very logical. Only missing one thing... Market context. We are in a bubble. Whenever that changes then 50x sales or maybe 10x sales will be the multiple that gets applied.
Personally any multiple of of sales beyond like 5 is crazy to me.. but the market says otherwise. if someone is willing to pay, then someone will be happy to sell for that price.
Shorts can only go to zero, a buy can go to infinity! 🚀
I bought at 150
Short it after it pumps 🧠
I bought 0.1 shares to say I was there
I can see spcx going to 400$ so can’t wait. Let’s moon.
ya you’re missing something here
Math where math is irrelevant
Hell yeah I got in on the hype train cuz I don’t THINK, I EMOTION… “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
I dont think this one will. They'll secure Artemis 3 and 4-5 contracts plus Mars one with Starship. Stock splits by mid 2027.
One word: Enron
They literally just added 26 billion a year in revenue as of the last few weeks. So your 30% is out the window already.
Bought it and already forgot it.
Your loss. This was a no brainer IMO.
This sub + r/ValueInvesting are jokes of a sub.
Always inverse both of these subs lmfao
Story of my life. When I buy a share and it goes up, and I sell, it keeps going up.
If I don't sell, it crashes.
If you have a 401k or similar retirement fund investing in the NASDAQ index, you already bought it.
what do you think those algorithms model? You've discovered a chicken and egg and decided that theres no relation between them.
I didn’t say that there is no relation between them. I said that algorithms are not driven by human emotion. My post implied that there can be an indirect relation between them.
They make a lot of money selling Starlink. Starlink is also the most militarily valuable tech on the planet.
Surprise. If you own funds in the nasdaq you will end up owning Spacex anyway. The choice has been made for you by Elon bending over the head of nasdaq to break the rules for him.