r/valueinvesting
One last pump before the downhill ride?
Author warns of bearish divergence as prices rise on shrinking volume while global economies weaken, signaling a major downturn ahead.
- Bearish divergence: prices rising while volume consistently shrinks, indicating weakening underlying momentum
- Retail buying power being squeezed out while institutions sit on the sidelines
- Global macro weakness: UK stagnant, South America inflation, Indonesia economic strain, delayed oil shock impacts
If you look past the stock price itself, volume is the true indicator right now. The occasional massive up-days under Trump create an illusion of a healthy market, but the underlying momentum is trending down. The biggest tell is the bearish divergence: as stock prices push higher, trading volume is consistently shrinking. It looks like the final bit of retail buying power is being squeezed out while institutions quietly sit on the sidelines.
Looking outside the US, the global picture is grim. The UK is stagnant, South America is battling rampant inflation, and countries like Indonesia are facing massive economic strain. Don't forget that the impact of oil shocks always operates on a delay; right now, we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg