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r/investingr/investing· u/cherrypoplar· 1d ago 0

To the people who are telling others "don't worry about your 401(k) because SpaceX is only going to be just 1% of your holdings"

Investor summaryBearish

Warns index rule changes will let cash-burning unicorns like SpaceX and OpenAI dilute passive funds and extract liquidity from 401(k)s.

Bear points
  • Index rule changes allow cash-burning companies to be included in passive funds.
  • Unprofitable tech giants will use IPOs to extract exit liquidity from retail retirement funds.
  • Cumulative dilution from multiple such IPOs will harm 401(k) investors.
Post body

You do realise that, after the rule changes made by the index controllers (like NASDAQ and FTSE), SpaceX is not going to be the only cash-burning company to suck exit liquidity from passive funds, right?

We already have OpenAI and Anthropic waiting in the pipelines (and who knows how many other unprofitable companies whose insiders need to cash out), preparing to use the exact same playbook that SpaceX is now trying.

How many "just 1%" hits should people be expected to tolerate for their investment and retirement funds?

Discussion · top comments30 selected
u/Karzap 1· 2h ago

Luckily I do s&p and they didn't get pushed over

u/YallShould 1· 12h ago

Silence bot

u/Mundane-Charge-1900 1· 1d ago

That’s true for the S&P 500 also. They have guidelines but still have to vote on each company added or removed. Tesla wasn’t added for years after meeting the criteria.

u/LeftyBoyo 1· 1d ago

Yep. I’m glad they stuck to their waiting period and profitability rules, unlike Nasdaq who bent over for the cash grab.

u/D3N1Z3Nx 1· 1d ago

Who has a 401k with QQQ in it? I want that unicorn plan.

u/charlies_brain 1· 1d ago

What you should be worried about is how the government will bail out the stock market with tax payer money when it tanks. Id rather be on the side getting bailed out.

u/Better_Goose_431 1· 1d ago

Then buy a different fund with a different rule set. Just because you’re passively investing doesn’t mean you can’t ever reorganize your portfolio

u/discodropper 1· 1d ago

Can’t fix stupid…

Well, actually you can. With education. But we’ve systematically defunded that, so…

u/Floppie7th 1· 1d ago

It's not a coincidence

u/Purple-Property8006 1· 1d ago

Screw both parties. Get rid of all of them. Start fresh.

It’s getting to the point where actual revolution would be the only viable option.

But to your point: you don’t necessarily have to \cut\ spending, you need to \reallocate it.\ Public isn’t inherently bad if you’re investing in the right things that enable a prosperous population. The way we’ve been doing it has been to invest in making the rich richer at the expense of everyone else.

u/Etherius 1· 1d ago

Okay bet

Elon Musk tried and everyone laughed at him

u/Purple-Property8006 1· 1d ago

Elon musk tried to get rid of bureaucrats, not politicians.

And he was an unelected pos wildly overstepping his actual authority.

u/3dprintinted 1· 1d ago

Lower egg and gas voters who just really did not like her laugh and idea of new wars be like: “well we ain’t got shit in our 401k and have negative equity on our homes and cars broda, fuck you too I suppose”

u/discodropper 1· 1d ago

You’re right, but I also said it started with Reagan and never mentioned anything about party, so we’re in agreement here

u/Chocolaterationcalls 1· 1d ago

So our deficit is 2 trillion and the top 10% have 4 trillion available to tax? We don’t even need to go for the top 20%? Incredible news, thanks for your help. Who would have thought the deficit would be so easy to solve.

u/Etherius 1· 1d ago

Lmao.

It never ceases to amaze me just how much of other people’s money you ghouls feel entitled to

u/Chocolaterationcalls 1· 1d ago

The Epstein class can’t allow themselves to be taxed or it would be more difficult to attack the children of the working class

u/SeraphimSphynx 1· 1h ago

Im almost 40. My kid is 2. Ideally I would have a 9/11 year old but infertility sucks. Most millennials I know, and definitely everyone my age I went to school with, has children 6 and under.

I literally only know 1 millennial with an older kid, 16, because bad life choices and all that.

u/phenix_igloo 1· 12h ago

I don't think that determining an index's components should fall under the SEC's supervision.

Is spacex grossly overvalued and does it suck to ETF holders who are not part of The Cult? Yes. But minute rules such as 'should the company make a profit before being integrated to nasdaq-100' should definitely not fall under SEC supervision.

Once the SEC greenlight a listing and therefore there's a reasonable assumption that the company is not an absolute scam , index committees should have a broad discretionary power in determining the components of their index. Except for cases where there's a blatant deviation from the index stated goal (like including a rocket company in a pharmaceutical index). But including an overvalued space / ai / telecom company in the Nasdaq is not a gross deviation from the Nasdaq-100 stated goals.

u/Purple-Property8006 1· 13h ago

The vast majority of “bureaucrats” are just civil servants doing a job to make sure the country runs. They’re average people going to work and doing a job created through the process of law. They’re not trying to remake the government to their own personal agenda.

Elon was a political appointee who seized power he by no right had. No law created his position or delegated him with authority. By all means, lick Elon’s boot.

u/Etherius 1· 12h ago

I’m not licking anyone’s boot, I’m defending an attempt (however ham-fisted) to rein in ridiculous government waste

The stories coming out of USAID were like a goddamned nightmare to hear about. We’re borrowing trillions of dollars to fund LGBTQ shit in third world nations that have way better shit to worry about? Come on, even you can’t justify thet

u/Purple-Property8006 1· 2h ago

I’m not going to claim that there’s no waste or problems with USAID, but there are massive issues with how it was cut. USAID has save millions of lives globally over the last few decades. The abrupt shutdown led to hundreds of thousand of preventable deaths.

The goal of USAID funding medical interventions to epidemics and outbreaks in low income nations also directly benefits Americans. Containing outbreaks means less Americans get exposed to the disease and it spreads less. Which, you know, might be important if there were ever to be a pandemic again.

USAID also makes up less than 1% of the federal budget, so as far as opportunities to curtail spending, it’s pretty insignificant in the grand scheme.

u/Etherius 1· 2h ago

There is no big item on the budget that’s going to go quietly

Imagine trying to cut Medicaid or Medicare? Social security?

The only things we can realistically go after are mid to small ticket items.

The fact that USAID saved millions worldwide is irrelevant. Those lives weren’t American, and Americans deserve an answer for why we’re up to our eyeballs in debt to save foreigners while we still have such monumental problems at home

u/taynt3d 1· 3h ago

There were plenty of “modern” tech companies back then (within the context of the era). For example, we were well into chips at that point for a decade or more, big giant established firms. The web/internet was just the newest shiny object in tech, much like Ai is today. Setting aside things like actual revenue and profits for a sec, I’m sure this will play out similarly from the perspective of this being real tech with real value and there’s going to be a few real companies that become the leaders, etc. But it’s also just as likely the initial valuations come down to reality eventually, and that all sorts of, other firms disappear or get consolidated and there will be lots of pain until it stabilizes into something more like an ongoing tech (becomes “modern”, widely adopted, integrated everywhere).

u/Suspicious_Green8013 1· 6h ago

First they came for the 1%, and I said nothing because I only had 99% left.

Then they came for the next 1%… and another… and another…

Passive index investing used to be 'own the market.' Now it's 'own the VC exit

u/Willy445_ 1· 7h ago

It’ll actually be less than 1% because of this little thing called float…

u/Recent-Day3062 1· 8h ago

It’s going to be zero in the S&P 500 until it has four successive quarters of profit. Even SapceX says that won’t be before 2030. So you’re half a decade away from any exposure in your s&p500 funds.

Nasdaq, however, changed their rules. There you will be FULLY exposed in under 15 days.

If you didn’t live through it, go back and look at 1999/2000. The Nasdaq index lost over two thirds of its value and wiped people out for decades. The s&p did far, far better. All those losing dotcoms were in the Nasdaq, but not the 500

u/SH4DOWBOXING 1· 10h ago

jesus. following this stuff from the outside is pretty jarring.

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u/prestodigitarium 1· 12h ago

Yeah, I've seen that first blog post. He dismisses that solar's better in space than on the ground, which is kind of insane. Anyone who's run a solar array on the ground can tell you that

you don't lose that much power through the atmosphere, so intuition about the area needed transfers pretty well

is nonsense. On the best days, you don't lose much, but you're trying to run your GPUs non-stop, and on a cloudy day, you can lose 80-90% of your power generation. During the winter, the days are short, and you can have cloudy weeks on end. There's no way to include enough batteries to overcome that, so you need to deploy many times the amount of solar. Also, nighttime.

The focus on radiators is also a bit strange, ISS had to keep humans alive, these things can run at 85 C. You can make the radiators like 1/3 the size of the solar array. It's not the driving factor.

The whole ballgame is whether SpaceX can get starship per kg launch costs low enough to make it viable.