r/investing
Will TRIP finally see a significant move higher after the June 29 AGM?
Author expects TRIP to rerate post-AGM due to activist involvement, TheFork strategic review, and SOTP discount elimination.
- Significant discount to sum-of-the-parts valuation, with TheFork alone estimated at $1B by Wedbush.
- Upcoming AGM and Starboard's involvement will likely lead to a formal strategic review of TheFork.
- Potential for short covering, institutional interest, and analyst price target increases as conglomerate discount is eliminated.
I’ve been following Tripadvisor closely and I’m curious what other shareholders think is the most likely event that finally gets the stock moving in a meaningful way.
The market already knows about Viator’s growth, TheFork’s improving profitability, and Starboard’s involvement. Yet the stock still trades at a significant discount to what many investors believe the sum of the parts is worth.
My personal view is that the most likely catalyst is not a surprise sale of the company, but rather a formal strategic review of TheFork.
The June 29 AGM is particularly interesting. Since Tripadvisor and Starboard already reached a cooperation agreement and a proxy fight is no longer expected, it seems reasonable to assume that at least some strategic direction has already been discussed behind the scenes. In my opinion, the AGM itself is unlikely to be the major catalyst. Instead, it may serve as the formal step that finalizes board changes and clears the path for strategic actions in the weeks and months that follow.
The sequence I envision looks something like this:
- June 29 AGM confirms the agreed board structure and Starboard backed directors.
- During Q3, the board begins a formal strategic review of TheFork or announces exploration of strategic alternatives.
- Investors start valuing Viator and TheFork separately rather than applying a conglomerate discount to the entire company. Wedbush recently estimated TheFork alone could be worth around $1 billion, suggesting a meaningful portion of Tripadvisor’s asset value may not yet be reflected in the current market capitalization.
- Analysts revisit their sum of the parts valuations and raise price targets.
- Short covering, options activity, and renewed institutional interest accelerate the move.
If that happens, I could see the stock first rerating into the mid-teens during the second half of 2026. A more significant move could follow in 2027 if TheFork is monetized and attention then shifts toward unlocking the value of Viator.
Curious what others think.
What event do you believe is most likely to drive a major revaluation of TRIP, and when do you expect it to happen?
"What event do you believe is most likely to drive a major revaluation of TRIP, and when do you expect it to happen?"
The problem with things like this is that it often takes much longer than people expect and that's if it happens at all.
I remember when people thought Liberty Tripadvisor was cheap years ago, it was eventually bought by Tripadvisor... at about 25 cents a share.
2024 article: https://skift.com/2024/03/06/tripadvisor-sale-apollos-interest-and-possible-scenarios/ ("Even Tripadvisor would agree that the sum of its parts is likely worth more the whole. That's what a potential buyer is likely thinking.") It's 2026 and TRIP is still a public company.
I remember Ackman making a presentation for Howard Hughes at Sohn in 2017 when it was $110 a share and the sum of the parts and how much all the land was worth and etc etc etc. By 2025 he was buying shares in the open market in the $60's; none of the usual (Brookfield, Blackstone, etc) did.
FPA Crescent was short Tencent and long Naspers for years because Naspers had a huge stake in Tencent, the value of which wasn't being appreciated and the thought was that it would eventually re-rate. It never really did - eventually Naspers spun off its investment in Tencent and others into Prosus, which was supposed to unlock value but has gone largely nowhere much.
Hopefully the catalysts you talk about materialize and something happens, all I'm saying is that a lot of times with "sum of the parts" cases the discount doesn't narrow as hoped and/or catalysts don't materialize.