r/stocks
SpaceX lost nearly $5 billion last year. Is a $1.77 trillion valuation actually justified?
The author questions if SpaceX's $1.77T IPO valuation is justified given its $5B loss and low revenue.
- Investors are pricing in future growth from Starlink, launch dominance, defense contracts, and AI ambitions.
- Valuation is based on future potential and creating new industries rather than current financials.
- SpaceX lost nearly $5 billion last year and generates a fraction of revenue compared to peers with similar valuations.
- Fundamentals and valuation metrics still matter eventually, regardless of the grand vision.
I'm trying to separate the excitement around Elon Musk from the actual investment case for SpaceX.
The company just completed the largest IPO in history and is now valued at roughly $1.77 trillion. At the same time, it reportedly lost almost $5 billion last year and generates only a fraction of the revenue produced by most companies in a similar valuation range.
The bullish argument seems to be that investors aren't valuing SpaceX based on today's financials. They're valuing Starlink, launch dominance, defense contracts, AI ambitions, and potentially entire industries that don't fully exist yet.
The bearish argument is that at some point valuation still matters, regardless of how impressive the vision may be.
For those who are bullish, what specifically makes a $1.77 trillion valuation reasonable today rather than five or ten years from now?
The Elon Musk premium
No, it’s a pump and dump for sure.
Shouldn't it then crash?
Bitcoin generates $0 income yet has a market capital of over $1 trillion.
Thats insane too.
No. The Tesla mob moved to SpaceX.
Don't short it. Those guys are crazy.
This seems like the top of a nutty bull market. The slope is down from here. Dot net boom go bad part 2 aka AI mania drop
How many companies you know that successfully send rockets into space? Thought so.
None of Elon's companies follow fundamentals. It's all just bullshit.
Valuation is in the eye of the bagholder
Will be interesting to see what happens when Democrats retakes the house and/or senate. If we see them take both... Lol
Bro, this is a casino. What kind of question is that.
The more we move towards idiocracy, the more bullish i am.
Go 15m, or 250m cap even.
Elons goal is not to turn a profit. His goal is mars. Not the thing.
Just like Tesla right?
Isn't the competition also state sponsored?
Sure, but didn’t Tesla go from $27 a share to over $400 within 2 years?
It has been accumulating over the last 4+ years because it gained 1382% in 2 years. Pretty easy to see through simple technical analysis.
Of course it's justified. Elonna Muskie says so.
Seeing as they have already sent up roughly 10,000 satellites which makes up roughly 65% of all active orbital tech, id certainly say so. Anyone saying otherwise is just butt hurt that Elon keeps making more money lol.
!remindme in 10 years
At current revenue: no. At future revenue: your bet, that’s the game
"Hello, my name is U+2728."
he's a white supremacist "birth rate! fertility!" panican
Right! Still lots of time for Spacex to fail. Maybe Elon was right after all.
It didn't lose money because of lack of sales. Its spending so much on r&d.
This is the biggest pile of shite ever to IPO, it’ll never be profitable.
Yes, it is justified
Of course it isn't.
Everyone knows it isn't
That's why the media is helping shill it
Completely unstable enough to be the richest man in the history of the world. Seems to me he knows something we don't? He knows how to make money, and investing is about following people that know how to make money. You can hate on him, call him unstable, etc, all you want, but facts are facts.
On paper he's wealthy. Tesla's sales are shrinking as he completely alienated his target audience. The rest of his companies don't even profit. And he's obviously unstable as a person, probably turned his brains into swiss cheese staying up every night on amphetamines. And he's on ketamine now looking drugged out of his mind. And he's not getting younger. But ok.