r/wallstreetbets
SPCX will not be slowing down until after the 15 day mark
Author bets on SPCX short-term surge driven by forced $20B index fund buying 15 days post-IPO, waiting for options.
- Index funds will be forced to buy nearly $20 billion worth of SPCX stock 15 days after release.
- Early investors are largely locked up or restricted from selling, minimizing day-one supply.
- Nasdaq rule changes fast-track mega-cap IPOs into index funds, creating a massive short-term catalyst.
Key dates: June 16, option trading opens up. July 7th, index funds will be forced to buy spcx.
The vast majority of early investors cannot sell unless specific conditions are met, and even then only up to 20% of their shares. About 5% are allowed to sell on day 1, but they won't because:
In May (last month) the nasdaq changed their rules to fast track mega cap IPOs being allowed to enter index funds 15 days after release. That day is July 7th. Index funds will be forced to buy nearly $20 billion worth of SPCX stock. Even if the early investors who make up 5% of the stock sell 100% of it, the stocks these index funds have to buy will be covering all of that. But I don't see why they'd sell day 1 knowing that the index funds will be generating that kind of volume just 15 days later.
This is a short term play moving off of the July 7th catalyst.
My positions: None until options open up because nothing but bugatti or bread line will satisfy me
That's the whole dd