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r/valueinvestingr/valueinvesting· u/Slow-Charity-2194· 1d agoDiscussion 0

Are you expanding growth portfolio or defensive (dividend stocks / bonds)?

Investor summaryBullish

Author questions high valuations driven by AI hype, suggesting a defensive strategy of buying bonds and holding cash like Berkshire.

Bear points
  • Market is overvalued with historically high P/E ratios based on overly optimistic AI assumptions.
  • Macro strategy to melt debt via higher inflation may fail in the next 1-2 years, risking a bear market.
BRK.B降息与宏观红利收息价值 / 回购
Post body

So, stock market seems to be holding right now despite so many reasons for a bear market. It is overvalued with historically high P/E ratios based on assumptions that AI will be the most profitable thing ever, and will be perfectly capitalized in next 5 years with amazing growth for next 10 years.

Bond prices are still low, very low; while yields are rising rapidly with inflation concerns. Will these concerns hold or not? Even Donald Trump doesn’t know the answer to that. But to me US strategy seems clear, take some geopolitical gains while increasing energy prices (means higher inflation but also higher gains for US oil producers + stronger demand for USD), somehow try to keep Fed in control not to raise interest rates, and make inflation higher than bond yields to melt debt/gdp ratio while USD valuation holds.

This scenario would be great for a bull market case if executed perfectly, it would mean even today’s high valuations are in discount. But I doubt if this can work at least in next 1-2 years.

So this reminds me graham’s strategy. To buy bonds when market’s heated and bonds are discounted, to keep cash in hand for a bear market. Same as Berkshire doing now.

What do you guys think? Are you implementing degensive strategies? How are you doing so? And how does it effect your portfolio now?

For me: 50% growth stocks (2 mega, 2 midcap), 15% dividend stocks (weight in one real estate based), 35% bond etf

Discussion · top comments4 selected
u/BearWithMeGM 1· 1d ago

I am buying growth outside of AI cycle.

And if it happens to pay dividends, it's a sweetener

u/Cowboy_Dan13 1· 1d ago

like what?

u/DarKuntu 1· 1d ago

I tend more to defensive, while I have several long term bets, most of my portfolio now is definitive defensive and it feels more right, but ofc the FOMO entering the ponzi scheme is hard.

u/Slow-Charity-2194 1· 1d ago

I’m considering towards going that direction now. There are still definitely good buys around, but it feels like even best valuated tech stocks now like Meta and Msft will enter bear market together with economy in large, sometime soon.