🤖Circus SE - From farm to table …FUELING HUMANITY🌾🍽️

When it comes to Circus, opinions are often divided, and the concept frequently meets with considerable skepticism.🗣️

But what exactly does the Circus Group do?

To put it briefly, in the words of the company’s founder and CEO, Nikolas Bullwinkel: he aims to disrupt the entire kitchen.

The food industry has suffered more than any other in recent years. Since the pandemic, the workforce has dwindled; staff have left the sector, labor is expensive, and qualified personnel are often simply unavailable.

In Germany alone, by the end of 2025, approximately **54%** of skilled workers in the food industry (chefs and food production staff) had a migration background. 👨🏼🍳🇩🇪

The impact that a rapidly shrinking birth rate in Western countries —combined with conservative migration policies—has on an industry like this is self-evident.

Added to this are numerous other smaller factors, such as rising minimum wages, which exert immense pressure on low-margin sectors.

One result: rising prices—for the most fundamental necessity of all: food. 🍖

Many canteens are no longer financially viable because customers are staying away and seeking cheaper alternatives, forcing them to close—often also because staff can no longer be found.

And let’s be honest: the food industry is a grueling line of work where—due to slim margins—the pay isn't exactly the most attractive, considering the sacrifices chefs and their teams have to make. (Much love to every single one of you ♥️)

But what about places that need to provide food but where it isn't the core business?

This is precisely where Circus comes in with its products. We are talking about places like hospitals, universities, industrial canteens, or even field kitchens. 🏥

Just imagine all these places without in-house food service...

Let’s take a closer look at the Circus Group. It consists of Circus SE and Circus Defence SE. (a wholly-owned subsidiary of Circus SE)

In 2025, Fully AI was also acquired, and—in addition to that—two further companies were acquired this year. (More on this later.)

Circus is currently defined primarily by its core product, the **CA-1**.

This is a 7-square-meter "silver box"—a self-contained, refrigerated system designed to essentially replicate a small canteen.

Fresh ingredients are stored in 36 silos, 12 of which are for liquids. 🍅

Equipped with two robotic arms and four cooking stations, the ca-1 can theoretically prepare six dishes simultaneously (two cold, four hot). Once prepared—a process that typically takes 5–8 minutes for hot dishes—the meals are moved to a dispensing carousel, where they wait for pickup in one of eight compartments that keep them warm. After cooking, the pots are transferred to an integrated dishwasher for immediate cleaning. 🧼

This creates a continuous workflow with no downtime.

To better understand the CA-1, however, a video usually helps to **experience the "magic"** of the whole system firsthand.📹

Current menu options range from scrambled eggs with potatoes and bacon (€4.59) to truffle penne (€6.99). In my opinion, the prices are really impressive for a supermarket offering.🥘

The many user reports in the dedicated Circus subreddit have also been nothing but positive regarding the taste of the dishes so far. I recently had the chance to taste a few dishes myself at Circus HQ, and I was fascinated!

So, how does the whole process work?

As previously mentioned, the pre-prepared ingredients are stored in silos. This means the cooking robot does not cook the pasta itself; pasta and meat are delivered pre-cooked and then receive their final cooking or searing on-site. The food preparation process is thus outsourced to wholesalers, resulting in significantly lower unit costs for the individual ingredients.💰

On-site, the only tasks left for the customer are filling the CA-1’s silos with ingredients and cleaning out any residue daily.📋

Currently, the actual labor time required to operate the system is just 1.5 hours per day—and that covers the operation of an entire canteen.

But it gets even better. In the latest Q1 review, Circus revealed plans for an even simpler version: a system similar to Nespresso pods.

In this scenario, wholesalers would handle the silo-filling step, meaning the customer would only need to swap out the silos in the CA-1 and clean the unit. This is expected to reduce the actual labor time to 30 minutes a day. Circus is starting with sauces and plans to expand the range further.

However, the CA-1 does far more than simply finalize the cooking process. It also takes over many tasks that would traditionally require an entire cafeteria management team: menu planning, demand forecasting, automatic ingredient reordering when silos run low, and even dynamic pricing adjustments.📋

It is also much more than a sophisticated microwave. The CA-1 is equipped with integrated sensors that continuously monitor temperatures and three cameras powered by Visual Intelligence technology (which can also be marketed as a standalone product). This system can detect anomalies in real time—for example, if a bowl is not being gripped correctly or if pasta misses the pot during dispensing. 🤖

Every CA-1 contributes data that helps improve the performance of all other devices. Thanks to integrated GPUs, much of this data can even be processed locally on the machines themselves.

As a result, the systems continuously improve over time and become increasingly reliable—a trend that was also reflected in the latest Q1 review.

The AI orchestrates efficient operations and coordinates the robotic arms of the CA-1.

Through its acquisition of Fully AI, Circus has also equipped every CA-1 with a voice assistant capable of advising users on menu items and meal selections.🗣️

Circus offers customers the option to either purchase or lease its systems.

A CA-1 currently costs up to €250,000, while the software subscription ranges between €8,000 and €12,000 per month, depending on the package selected.

Leasing fees start at approximately €4,000–€9,000 per month and are offered through financing partners such as MMV Bank and FINEXITY.🛒

When Circus signs a customer such as Mercedes, the challenge goes far beyond simply delivering a machine. Circus must integrate with Mercedes’ payment systems, inventory management platforms, and operational workflows. At the same time, it must establish connections with wholesalers and build out the entire supply chain infrastructure. This undoubtedly requires significant effort and time, but it also creates a substantial competitive moat.🏰

The vision behind Circus Vision extends well beyond end-customer deployment. The company’s long-term ambition is to optimize the entire food value chain—from the farmer all the way to the consumer’s plate—through increasing levels of autonomy.

A recent example of this vision is the software developed for Meta smart glasses 👓:

Circus plans to scale aggressively over the coming years. 📶

The company currently has a theoretical production capacity of 6,000 units annually and expects to achieve an actual production capacity of more than 700 units this year without additional capital investments.🏭

Circus does not manufacture its systems directly. Instead, production is outsourced to contract manufacturer Celestica.

At present, Circus operates through a manufacturing facility in Suzhou, China. Later this year, a second facility in Oradea, Romania, is expected to begin operations, primarily focused on military customers. This facility would increase theoretical annual production capacity to approximately 10,000 units.

The company also plans to open a manufacturing site in Richardson, Texas later this year.

Interestingly, current job postings at Celestica provide some clues regarding these facilities:

🇨🇳Suzhou: 9 open positions

🇷🇴Oradea: 3 open positions

🇺🇸Richardson: 189 open positions

This may indicate that the Oradea facility is nearing launch.🔮

So what do the Meta smart glasses have to do with all of this?

Production capacity is one thing—but how can a company with only around 85 employees integrate hundreds or even thousands of systems simultaneously?

The answer lies in the smart glasses.👓

To meet anticipated demand, Circus is introducing the glasses as a training and operational support platform. They allow operators to be trained without extensive on-site instruction. The glasses can monitor individual workflow steps on command and identify deviations from standard procedures. Even without direct user input, the camera system could proactively detect anomalies throughout the process.

But the truly clever aspect goes even further.💭

While Circus uses the glasses to train operators, those same operators simultaneously generate valuable data that can be used to train future robotic systems. In a way, it resembles how Pokémon GO leveraged user participation to build an enormous geospatial dataset. Circus is creating an ecosystem around the smart glasses and using that dependency to pursue broader ambitions.🤖

The company has already hinted at some of these plans in previous presentations.

Importantly, the smart-glasses software can also be marketed as a standalone product.

While much of this may still sound futuristic today, it paints a clear picture of the direction Circus intends to pursue.🔮

However, Circus has evolved beyond the CA-1 alone.

Starting this year, the company will also begin producing a new system designed for larger-scale applications such as field kitchens, military deployments, and major construction sites.

This product is called the **CA-M** and is based on the same technological foundation as the CA-1.

Whereas the CA-1 is intended for indoor environments, the CA-M is designed specifically for outdoor operations. 🌧️

It is a container-based autonomous cooking system equipped with 42 dispensing compartments and 10 cooking stations.

Unlike the CA-1, the CA-M utilizes only a single robotic arm. Ingredients are transported through the system using a conveyor mechanism rather than being individually handled throughout the process.

The CA-M is engineered to operate for up to 36 hours without external electricity or water supply. It can also be integrated with UAVs and UAS platforms, meaning that food supply chains in conflict zones could potentially be serviced by drones rather than human transport personnel.🛸

A CA-M unit is expected to cost between €500,000 and €600,000, in addition to software fees.

The CEO once shared an anecdote on a podcast that perfectly illustrated the practical use case of the system:

„so there are cases where even the ukrainian armed forces, they told us: once we ve set up the Overall base camp with a kitchen set up, the Mission is already Done“

Beyond the CA-M, Circus also announced the acquisition of Alberts during its most recent Q1 review.

This acquisition adds another autonomous food preparation system to the company’s portfolio. Alberts devices store frozen ingredients within a compact one-square-meter footprint and can prepare smoothies, frappés, soups, and similar products on demand.🥤

Because ingredients remain frozen until needed, food waste is minimized.

The purchase price of an Alberts system ranges from approximately €30,000 to €40,000, plus a small software fee.

Who are Circus customers?

Circus currently reports more than 550 binding orders distributed across over 40 customers, primarily located in the DACH region. Roughly one-third of these orders are leasing agreements, while two-thirds represent direct purchases.

Among its most notable commercial customers are companies such as Mercedes and Meta.

The defense segment is also developing rapidly. Existing customers already include the German Armed Forces🇩🇪, Ukraine 🇺🇦 , and the Lithuanian military 🇱🇹.

Building on these initial defense contracts, Circus is reportedly engaged in discussions with more than ten additional NATO partners, including Italy🇮🇹, Poland🇵🇱, Canada🇨🇦, and the U.S. Army🇺🇸.

Demand therefore appears substantial….

Beyond the 550+ confirmed orders, Circus also reports a significantly larger pipeline of non-binding pre-orders and framework agreements. These include arrangements with several Chinese universities (through **UPOCM**), the **FLC Group**, which supports refugee accommodations, and construction giant **Strabag**.

For the current year, Circus has issued revenue guidance of €44 million to €55 million.💰

According to management, achieving this target requires the delivery of approximately 200 systems.📦

Interestingly, although Circus already possesses the manufacturing capacity to deliver more units immediately, management has deliberately chosen a more measured rollout strategy. Their primary focus is customer experience and successful implementation rather than maximizing short-term volume.

Of course, no investment opportunity comes without risks.

Circus remains a pre-revenue company which is only generating significant revenue starting this year. Last year, the company raised approximately €50 million in fresh capital. Additional dilution risk exists through outstanding stock options and a convertible bond that remains outstanding until 2030. However, the convertible bond can be serviced until 2028 and repurchased for 30 million.

CEO Nikolas Bullwinkel holds a 22% stake himself, while VC investors and management hold 37% of the shares. These shares are subject to a lock-up until 2028 and cannot be sold; an earlier sale would only be possible with the approval of the Board of Directors (the exact breakdown can be found via the link regarding dilution).

There are also several competitors in the market. However, in my view, only GoodBytz currently represents a truly serious challenger. Goodbytz's biggest problem at the moment is production capacity, which currently stands at 100 units per year. 🏭

🌎The wider world as the next major step:

Since the latest Q1 review, public communication has become quieter. However, that silence may be misleading…👀

While the market focuses on near-term deliveries and guidance figures, Circus appears to be quietly building the infrastructure required for much larger growth.

Recently, the company posted job openings for chefs throughout the **GCC region**—an early indication of expansion into the Middle East.

At the same time, Circus is developing an initial CA-1 corridor across **Texas**, intended to provide 24/7 food services to military families.🪖

Circus has also announced this year that it has acquired the Israeli-American company k-Robotics. This enables Circus to enter the US market significantly earlier than anticipated—one reason why I believe this year's guidance could be exceeded.

The guidance was prepared at a time when neither revenue from the CA-M nor initial revenue from the new Alberts units was factored in. 📈

The last publicly announced delivery figure was provided during the Q1 review. As of April 17, 2026, 17 CA-1 units had been installed out of the planned 200. 📦

Things are "perfectly on track," as the CEO puts it.

As previously mentioned, Circus prioritizes delivering a high level of service during the integration of individual customers before those customers receive larger numbers of units; this means we will see an exponential effect as we head into Q3/Q4. The next **operational update call** is scheduled for July 16, 2026. ☎️

On June 22, 2026, the CEO will present the company again at mwb Research.📺

My opinion:

I currently hold 2,050 shares at an average price of €11.8454; I am continuously buying more, as I am hugely convinced by the technology. I think everyone can relate to this in some way—whether it’s the long-haul truck driver who usually has to settle for fast food at gas stations, the patient served nothing but limp bread, or my own situation: my employer has closed the canteens at all locations in recent years, so now it’s a packed lunch, a delivery service, or something else quick. However, I see the biggest use case in locations where canteens are already operating at a loss; in those cases, it is simply a matter of cutting costs.📈

I believe Circus is well on its way to completely revolutionizing one of the world's largest and most important industries. It is about making food accessible and affordable everywhere in the world—it is about…

FUELING HUMANITY

And the approaches taken with Nespresso capsules and Meta glasses show that the vision goes much further—from farmer to table.👩🏼🌾🍽️

So what do you think?💭

Does Circus have what it takes to fundamentally transform an entire industry?👀

I’ve spent the last year doing intensive research on circus—feel free to ask me questions!

This post is merely an introduction to a stock and is intended to make your research easier; it does not constitute financial advice. Everything here reflects my own perception and opinion. I am not a stock analyst, so please do your own research. Investments carry risks.