r/wallstreetbets
The big picture of the spaceX IPO and how it will play out over the coming months
Author warns SpaceX IPO is a trap: insiders dump 70%, hedge funds engineer slow FOMO pump, retail becomes exit liquidity via overpriced calls.
- Stock may see a modest initial pump, especially around options opening
- Elon Musk's personality attracts strong retail interest and meme momentum
- 70% of IPO offering is insider and early investor liquidation, not new capital raise
- Retail investors are being set up as exit liquidity for insiders cashing out
- Hedge funds are engineering a slow FOMO-driven pump so they can exit at juicy returns before a big crash
Hello regards,
Here are some facts:
- 70% of the IPO offering is insider and early investor liquidation.
- The IPO is supposedly 4x oversubscribed, yet I somehow registered for a couple shares yesterday and got them at IPO price today.
- Options trading opens Tuesday — and Elon Musk's personality attracts retail meme stock traders (WSBers). It's a party and we can buy a few shares to be part of it. We get the shits and giggles while being exit liquidity for insiders cashing out. Sounds fun, right? We're all going to the party.
- Insiders and early investors need to offload a massive position, and dumping it all at once would crash the price.
- Big players have been shifting positions over the last few month from tech and software to defense and
The big guys are engineering this. The stock will likely pump a bit, but not much — at least not until options trading opens and hedge funds have had time to quietly accumulate shares for the next stage of the play.
Once options start trading, regards will pile into overpriced calls. But who's on the other side selling those calls? It's the hedge funds — the same ones keeping the price stable right now while they build their position. They're buying what insiders are selling, and they'll need retail to eventually buy what they're holding.
This won't be a short one-week thing. It needs to happen slowly and gradually, in a way that makes retail FOMO in at every step. Over the coming months, the playbook will be to give retail hope, then make that hope start to feel like reality, and finally engineer one last FOMO cycle so hedge funds can exit at juicy returns before the big crash.