r/valueinvesting
Why is nobody talking about ADBE??
The author argues ADBE is a textbook value buy despite AI fears, comparing current sentiment to past overreactions on META and GOOG.
- ADBE is a textbook value opportunity despite current market sentiment.
- Historical overreactions to META and GOOG show that AI disruption fears are often overblown.
- No company has an untouchable moat, so risks are always present and should be accepted.
Title is rage bait.
Adobe is the textbook value opportunity traditional value investors look for, but when the time comes most are convinced by the general sentiment and don’t pull the trigger.
META in 2022 — Mark Z has lost his mind and will waste all their money on the metaverse.
GOOG in 2025 — Google is falling behind and OpenAI will take over search.
ADBE now — AI media generators will replace the portfolio of tools and services Adobe provides…
The perfect opportunity doesn’t exist. No company has an untouchable moat, there’s always risk and competition.
Plug: https://open.substack.com/pub/tenichols94/p/adobe-adbe-when-the-market-panics?r=5b3c82&utm\_medium=ios
Every day there are multiple posts about ADBE. What you mean lol
The title was rage bait lol
Se Va directo a la bancarrota
Yeah for sure. The consistently growth fcf is going to be their demise.
Dumbest take, the company has no substance
Management in shambles, customers hate them, losing at the margin to AI-native tools
Value opportunity ≠ low pe
People think it’s being killed by AI, but nobody wants to admit most businesses, especially big businesses, are not using AI for image generation because of copyright concerns
That's not really true. Major companies are producing entirely AI generate static and video ads. I work for one of them...
Good luck. You’ll need it.
You’re trying to draw a parallel here to META in 2022 and GOOG in 2025, but the comparison falls flat when you look at the actual time horizons and opportunity cost.
META in 2022 was a sharp, macro-induced market drawdown where everything dropped. It lasted less than a year before the business proved the market wrong and aggressively turned it around.
GOOG in 2025 was a temporary narrative-driven dip based on OpenAI fears. Google was always fundamentally solid, printing cash, and corrected its course quickly once the market realized their infrastructure and AI integrations weren't going anywhere.
ADBE's stock has essentially been in a structural decline for five straight years, sitting more than 50% down from its 2021 peak.
This isn't just a brief sentiment panic; it's a massive, multi-year opportunity cost engine. While an investor waited for Adobe to find its footing and figure out its generative AI monetization strategy, the broader market and standard tech ETFs were making massive, compounding gains.
The perfect opportunity doesn’t exist, but there is a big difference between buying a short-term dip on a temporary narrative panic and catching a falling knife on a five-year underperformer.
What is the fundamental catalyst that reverses five years of bleeding that will allow ADBE to make up for lost time relative to the broad market?
I remember META here in 2022. Everyone on Reddit, or at least 90% of people were saying it's done and that it's going to become a MySpace. I bought it back then and remember arguing with everyone on here. I haven't bought a tech stock since until now, ADBE
So you caught the bottom on META, and that makes you infallible, so ADBE is going to have same outcome just because you bought it?
Again, what is the fundamental catalyst that reverses five years of bleeding that will allow ADBE to make up for lost time relative to the broad market? If the answer is the market is dumb then that's just blind hope.
its not 5 years of bleeding bro.. it went up from 2022 to 2024 and dipped cause of AI fears. If there wasn't the panic sell in last year, year and a half, you wouldn't claim a 5 year decline or whatever.
I wonder if Adobe will come out with smart glasses?
Now that’s a moat.
I hear theyre working on a moonlight powered lawnmower. plus a Marslight powered roadster for Elon and co. Soon To Come!
Everyone talking about it and it keep getting destroyed every week.
Long term I think this will continue to grow.