r/options
VIX Options
OP plans to use his entire $50k to buy long VIX options at lows and sell at highs, asking why this 'guaranteed' 40%+ return strategy isn't popular.
- VIX historically ebbs and flows, offering cyclical opportunities to buy low and sell high.
- Trailing stop-loss rules can help capture massive gains during extreme volatility spikes.
- A prolonged bull market could keep VIX suppressed, leading to severe time decay losses for long options.
- VIX pricing structures and futures curve dynamics make long-term holding inherently unprofitable.
- Poor execution of trailing stops might result in missing out on rare, massive volatility spikes.
Ok, I am seriously considering doing this and I am waiting for someone to talk me out of it. If I took my entire portfolio, about 50k and buy long Vix options when it was low, like maybe in the $17 range, then wait for it to rise to say maybe $23 or so (which it will undoubtedly do), then sell. Then wait and repeat. I project anywhere from 40% to 100% or higher per year, given that it will ebb and flow several times a year based on recent history. My concern is basically selling too early and not capturing the major gains that happen every so often when it hits 30, 40 or even 80 sometimes. But was thinking of making trailing stop rules for myself. Like if my target is 23 from a 17 buy, then don't sell after it hits 23, unless it goes to 22, then as it gets higher, increase the stop, like if it hits 30, don't sell until 28, etc. What am I not seeing here? Is it a major risk that a bull market may last a year and the Vix won't rise? Are the returns not as good as I think? I did this on a very small scale and it worked, but it was only once. Is there something about Vix pricing I'm not seeing? I know it will take discipline, but if I can almost be guaranteed a 40% plus gain, then why is not a thing?