r/valueinvesting
MSFT is done for now. I don’t see it getting back above $450 anytime soon.
MSFT is fully valued with downside risks from Azure slowdown and capital drain from Anthropic's IPO.
- Azure growth could slow down or lose market share to competitors.
- Anthropic's IPO could suck capital away from MSFT.
- Current AI and cloud advantages are already priced in, making $430 a ceiling.
TL;DR: Microsoft isn’t undervalued at $380–400. Unless it delivers exceptionally strong results over the next two quarters which I don’t expect, it faces growing challenges that increase the downside risk.
Last Friday was the last chance to escape this ass stock
The bullish counterargument is that Microsoft isn’t being valued like a normal software company anymore.
•A dominant cloud provider.
•A major AI infrastructure owner.
•A beneficiary of enterprise AI adoption
Ok, these are true, for now…
But these things are all already priced in.
Also, the bears are much more blood thirsty than ever , If any of the following happen, MSFT could easily trade lower:
•Azure posted decent results, but even a slight slowdown in growth would be concerning, let alone losing market share to competitors.
• Anthropic IPO becomes the hottest AI trade on the market and sucks capital away from MSFT, much like SpaceX has drawn money away from other aerospace plays.
The risks appear greater than the rewards right now.
Times have changed, and it’s no longer impossible for $430 to become the ceiling rather than the floor.
Unless their new quantum chip turns out to be some Willy Wonka–level magic and somehow gives birth to a quantum AI god which it won’t….
i hope so too. I hope EU replaces Windows and Office and stock falls below 350$ to buy ir
that is about to change soon
Yea, I see them replacing Office 365 with Libre Office xD
I don't see it. But go for it. I don't mind either way.
Buy and sell at 550
The concern here is that market is not rewarding Microsoft even when the company is doing well with great results and new initiatives. 😮
how did you come up with this Number and timeframe? Too nice to be true i think
this post made me bullish
Ten paciencia con MSFT compra más en las caídas y pronto verás buenos resultados, mejor si compras su etf.
Last quarter, they literally said in their statement, we don’t have enough capacity to support Azure Growth in that segment. Are you doing any research at all? Listening to any of their calls? Cmon
me too. I think their products can be easily replaced and they don't innovate at all that would keep them ahead of competition. for today's kids you need constant updates and msft is simply too passive in their products
It’s nothing like Google. Google was suppressed due to DOJ divestment fears.
What 500?
stock price, i expect to see 500 USD in 2026 considering there are two more earnings reports (assuming growth stays pretty much the same), wouldnt you agree ? (If we stayed at 400 PE would be like 20)
I dont know tbh the more it stays at these lower valutions the more i can accumulate, so id preffernifnit kept growing and stay at this price for at least 2-3 years :D