r/investing
The math isn't mathing on the SpaceX IPO
SpaceX's $2.1T IPO valuation at 112x sales with $4.9B net loss is an unjustifiable bubble compared to Apple and Nvidia.
- SpaceX's 112x P/S ratio is nearly 4x Nvidia's peak AI valuation, despite posting a $4.9B net loss.
- The only cash-printing segment is Starlink, while the rocket and xAI businesses are essentially cash furnaces.
- The $28.5T TAM cited in the S-1 is an unrealistic narrative used solely to justify an unjustifiable valuation.
Everyone is cheering the 19% pop like it proves something. It doesn't. Let's actually look.
SpaceX closed today near a $2.1 TRILLION market cap. Their 2025 revenue? $18.7 billion. That's a price to sales ratio of about 112x. Not earnings, SALES. And they didn't even have earnings, they posted a $4.9 billion net loss for the year.
For context, Apple trades around 9x sales. Nvidia at the absolute peak of AI mania was around 30x. SpaceX just IPO'd at nearly 4x that, while losing money.
And it gets better. The ONLY part of this company that actually prints cash is Starlink, which did $11.4 billion of that revenue. So you're paying a $2 trillion valuation for what is basically a satellite ISP wearing a rocket costume, with an xAI cash furnace bolted on that they conveniently merged in two months before the roadshow.
Then there's the $28.5 trillion "total addressable market" in the S-1. Twenty eight TRILLION. That is a number you write down when you need the valuation to make sense and the actual income statement won't cooperate.
Either I'm missing something huge or a whole lot of people just bought a story at 112x sales and called it investing. Tell me where the math closes, because right now it doesn't.
Sir, this is a casino.
So tired of this shit people move on! ELON is the first trillionare he is the winner.
Standing by for rug pull next week.
All investing is speculation
Zoom zoom zoom, we’re going to the moon 🎵
space being cold is like saying 0 is null.
Love him or hate him, you can’t deny that the companies he has been a part of have literally changed the world and done so more than once. The ambition of SpaceX is so incredible that it’s really impossible to value. Like if he actually gets humans to Mars, what is that worth?
The math hasn't mathed on TSLA for a long time. But in fairness, the math didn't math on AMZN for a long time either. They were losing money every year until their IPO, and then their losses exploded in the five years after their IPO. Their P/E was effectively infinite. Once they had a non-infinite P/E it kept going up into multiple hundreds. And they even dipped back into full unprofitability some years. Nonetheless... AMZN has done very well as both a stock and a company.
The point is: people who are investing believe -- rightly or wrongly -- that SpaceX will be bigger in 10 years than they are today. They don't care what the math says now. They are banking on something softer that doesn't reflect in the math: they believe SpaceX is in a uniquely powerful market position on a huge market with a huge moat.
I didn't invest in SpaceX myself, but I strongly considered it. I would not rule out investing in the future.
I bought at 150 and immediately set in a 10% trailing stop, the stop kicked in at 159. I will take my one-day 6% ROI and be real happy as the bag holders watch their “investment” implode!
Tesla is more than a car company
The current stock price? Clearly the market believes it is. See, SPCX market cap and stock price and what happened to the price after X was merged into SpaceX on the secondary market
Do I personally believe it is fairly valued? No, but a lot of people have lost money shorting Elon’s companies over the years. He has an impressive track record of promising the moon and having his companies keep up despite missing pretty routinely.
You know, if we really want to commit to turning a planet into an Earth-like paradise.... we could start with, ya know, Earth...?
Just sayin.
....which is all the more a reason to get in now? They aren't stopping, don't plan to.
I personally don’t like Elon Musk and his companies. I think he and his companies are overhyped. Given that I don’t want anything to do with his stock. But that’s me.
ISS runs at 3c into their coolant system. When people use numbers and get them wrong, it bugs me. Using 85c for chips it would be two thirds less radiator mass. 1.2^4 is not something u ignore.