r/valueinvesting
Thoughts on how this market plays out. Who truly knows
Expects a pullback before Micron earnings and an AI top before Anthropic's IPO, but favors rate-cut beneficiaries, AI bailouts, and crypto.
- Fed rate cuts will boost rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer discretionary.
- The government may bail out AI companies because they are essential for national security.
- Bitcoin and cryptocurrency companies will bottom out and ultimately win.
- Historical midterm year patterns and geopolitical tensions point to market corrections and crashes.
- AI froth will be scrubbed out as investors demand to see actual revenue from AI capital expenditures.
- Mega IPOs like Anthropic often signal a market top.
The Iranian war won’t end till Israel overtakes Iran. Trump bluffs time and time again to manipulate markets. The U.S. can’t afford to betray Israel because they have blackmail on us, footage of our politicians doing the most despicable things one could imagine. Israel has bought out our government.
Historically, there are 2 corrections/crashes in the markets during midterm years. I expect chop and possibly a pullback leading up to Micron’s earnings on June 24th, which could open the door for a blow-off top heading into Anthropic’s fall IPO. Big IPOs often signal top
The froth will get scrubbed out, and investors will question the AI spend and want to see revenue happen from all this.
In my opinion, companies based on rate cuts (real estate, consumer discretionary) will emerge from the crash because the Fed will have cut rates. There could be a government bailout of these AI companies because we can’t afford to lose the AI race to China. AI companies are needed for security.
Bitcoin will also have bottomed. Cryptocurrency companies will win. Companies that benefit from the inference stage will emerge.