r/valueinvesting
Current thoughts on market
Expects a pullback before Micron's earnings and a blow-off top before Anthropic's IPO, predicting AI froth will be scrubbed out.
- Rate cuts will eventually benefit real estate and consumer discretionary sectors.
- Government bailouts are likely for AI companies due to national security concerns against China.
- Companies benefiting from the AI inference stage will ultimately emerge and succeed.
- Historical midterm year patterns and geopolitical tensions suggest an impending market correction or crash.
- Big IPOs like Anthropic often signal a market top, leading to a blow-off top before a major pullback.
- Investors will eventually question massive AI capital expenditures and demand to see actual revenue.
The Iranian war won’t end till Israel overtakes Iran. Trump bluffs time and time again to manipulate markets. The U.S. can’t afford to betray Israel because they have blackmail on us, footage of our politicians doing the most despicable things one could imagine. Israel has bought out our government.
Historically, there are 2 corrections/crashes in the markets during midterm years. I expect chop and possibly a pullback leading up to Micron’s earnings on June 24th, which could open the door for a blow-off top heading into Anthropic’s fall IPO. Big IPOs often signal top
The froth will get scrubbed out, and investors will question the AI spend and want to see revenue happen from all this.
In my opinion, companies based on rate cuts (real estate, consumer discretionary) will emerge from the crash because the Fed will have cut rates. There could be a government bailout of these AI companies because we can’t afford to lose the AI race to China. AI companies are needed for security.
Companies that benefit from the inference stage will emerge.