r/valueinvesting
I'll run a forensic balance sheet analysis on any company you name posting the full breakdown in this thread
Author offers forensic balance sheet and credit metric analysis for any US non-financial company named in the comments.
I've been sharing some of the work from an accounting-based distress model I built the Hertz retrospective, the Beyond Meat analysis, the methodology discussion. A few people asked if I could run it on specific companies they're looking at.
So: name a company below and I'll post a full breakdown of the key credit metrics leverage trajectory, interest coverage, ROA trend, liquidity position, and anything structurally interesting — directly in this thread. No paywall, no signup. If you want it formatted as a PDF report I'll send it to you directly.
The analysis is purely from public financial statements. I'm not making a buy or sell recommendation — just running the same forensic framework I applied to Hertz (41.6 score, flagged May 2019, filed May 2020) and Beyond Meat (76 score, $1.1B in notes due March 2027) on whatever you want to look at.
US non-financial companies work best. Drop the ticker.
If this kind of analysis is useful to you systematic, balance-sheet-driven, no opinions, just ratios and trajectories - I'm launching a subscription service at $9.99/month where I publish full Distress Reports on flagged companies. Link in my profile if interested. Happy to keep answering company requests here regardless.
If this kind of analysis is useful to you systematic, balance-sheet-driven, no opinions, just ratios and trajectories - I'm launching a subscription service at $9.99/month where I publish full Distress Reports on flagged companies. Link in my profile if interested. Happy to keep answering company requests here regardless.
If this kind of analysis is useful to you systematic, balance-sheet-driven, no opinions, just ratios and trajectories - I'm launching a subscription service at $9.99/month where I publish full Distress Reports on flagged companies. Link in my profile if interested. Happy to keep answering company requests here regardless.
If this kind of analysis is useful to you systematic, balance-sheet-driven, no opinions, just ratios and trajectories - I'm launching a subscription service at $9.99/month where I publish full Distress Reports on flagged companies. Link in my profile if interested. Happy to keep answering company requests here regardless.
AMPX
SMCI — Super Micro Computer
Not in Compustat panel under standard CIK. Used public 10-K data directly.
Score: 5/100 — MONITOR ✅
FY2024 (June year-end): revenue $14.9B, net income $1.2B, estimated tl/ta \~0.565, ROA \~23.5%, interest coverage high. Current ratio \~2.1.
SMCI is genuinely profitable with strong margins driven by AI server demand. The balance sheet is solid. However I have to flag the non-financial risk clearly: SMCI delayed its FY2024 and Q1 FY2025 10-K filings due to an accounting investigation, which was resolved but created a period where the company almost faced Nasdaq delisting. That is not a balance sheet risk — it is a governance risk. The financial ratios are healthy.
Verdict: balance sheet is clean. The risk is governance and customer concentration in AI infrastructure spending, not insolvency.
If this kind of analysis is useful to you systematic, balance-sheet-driven, no opinions, just ratios and trajectories - I'm launching a subscription service at $9.99/month where I publish full Distress Reports on flagged companies. Link in my profile if interested. Happy to keep answering company requests here regardless.
If this kind of analysis is useful to you systematic, balance-sheet-driven, no opinions, just ratios and trajectories - I'm launching a subscription service at $9.99/month where I publish full Distress Reports on flagged companies. Link in my profile if interested. Happy to keep answering company requests here regardless.
If this kind of analysis is useful to you systematic, balance-sheet-driven, no opinions, just ratios and trajectories - I'm launching a subscription service at $9.99/month where I publish full Distress Reports on flagged companies. Link in my profile if interested. Happy to keep answering company requests here regardless.
If this kind of analysis is useful to you systematic, balance-sheet-driven, no opinions, just ratios and trajectories - I'm launching a subscription service at $9.99/month where I publish full Distress Reports on flagged companies. Link in my profile if interested. Happy to keep answering company requests here regardless.
If this kind of analysis is useful to you systematic, balance-sheet-driven, no opinions, just ratios and trajectories - I'm launching a subscription service at $9.99/month where I publish full Distress Reports on flagged companies. Link in my profile if interested. Happy to keep answering company requests here regardless.
Crwv
ASTS
AMPX
UiPath