r/investing
Tech is selling off, PPI came in hot. I’m starting to look at prediction markets instead of the stock.
Questions SpaceX's $2.1T IPO valuation amid hot inflation and tech sell-off, turning to prediction markets for sentiment checks.
- SpaceX is a fundamentally real business with massive retail interest.
- The stock has the potential to continue rallying despite a tough macro environment.
- The macro environment (hot PPI, tech sell-off) is not conducive to risk-on assets.
- The $2.1T IPO valuation is extremely expensive and the timing feels misaligned with market conditions.
I’m not trying to make a dramatic crash call. I’m just having a hard time reconciling the setup. Tech has been under pressure, inflation data isn’t helping the rate-cut case, and geopolitical risk is still hanging around. Normally that’s the kind of backdrop where I’d expect people to get at least a little more cautious.
Then SpaceX goes public, raises $75B, and still closes its first day around a $2.1T market cap.
I’m not saying SpaceX isn’t a real business. Obviously it is. But the timing feels weird to me: a very expensive IPO, huge retail interest, and a market backdrop that doesn’t exactly scream “risk-on.”
So instead of trying to decide whether SPCX is a good buy right here, I’ve been looking more at SpaceX-related prediction markets. They don’t tell you what the stock is worth, but they do force the question into something more specific: can the valuation hold, does the execution story keep improving, do the launch milestones actually happen?
That feels more useful to me than arguing “great company vs overpriced IPO” in the abstract. Maybe the stock keeps ripping anyway. Maybe it digests. I just find the event-contract side cleaner as a sentiment check than trying to read one day of IPO price action.
This is why I’ve been watching the SpaceX related contracts on moomoo. Not because a launch milestone contract tells you what SPCX should be worth, but because it separates the question a little. The stock is pricing the whole story at once. The prediction markets are pricing specific pieces of the story: valuation holding, launch milestones, execution risk.
Totally a viable strat
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/w3MpS3LHJL
Once COinbase perps hit will insane.
Thats where the real action will be.
Options with decay are what my grand parents used
I thought the stock market was the prediction market. No? Things changed?
No, the stock market is a market for the expected future free cash flow of large American corporations
Not really, the stock market no one knows what we are pricing in. Prediction markets price in specific events. With stocks we don’t know why we are up/down sideways etc…but over time it sorts itself out
Agreed. Stocks are pricing a giant bundle of assumptions, while prediction markets isolate individual ones : )
That's why I find them useful as a complement, especially around events like IPOs where it's hard to separate fundamentals from sentiment.
Fair point. The stock market is basically a giant prediction mkt.
I just like that event contracts make people answer a narrower question. "Will X happen?" is sometimes easier to reason about than "What should this company be worth?" especially around a big IPO when sentiment is all over the place.
It might be people who are answering them. It might be Polymarket/Kalshi are the ones answering them.
funny thing is a prediction market contract basically is an option, just the most stripped down version. a yes or no event contract is a digital option that only answers will x happen, listed options let you express how much and by when too, and you can sit on either side of the trade.
the decay is what my grandparents used take kinda misses it, theta is only a drag when youre buying. flip it and decay is the thing paying you, which is exactly what you want around an event like an ipo where premium is jacked up. instead of buying a directional prediction you sell the inflated premium and let the event uncertainty bleed out in your favor. prediction markets are cleaner for isolating one binary, no argument there, but writing off options as decay traps leaves the whole seller side on the table. you ever sell premium around these events or only ever buy the directional side?
Hormuz is opening. If anything flat. CDO of 08 was a massive domino effect that happened overnight. Unless we hit 150 crude. We staying flat.
Hormuz is opening
Hahaha sure it is