r/valueinvesting
The dark side of SpaceX. What Elon doesn’t want you to know.
The post argues SpaceX's IPO is a cash grab, citing massive space R&D losses and hidden billions from Elon's failing AI venture, Grok.
- Space segment is burning cash with $930M in Q1 2026 R&D for Starship against only $619M in revenue.
- SpaceX is hiding the massive $6.36B operating loss from Elon's failed AI venture, Grok.
- Insiders will dump shares once lockups expire, leaving retail investors as exit liquidity.
SpaceX is currently the darling of the stock market, the hottest IPO on the block. It has an monopoly on space travel with goals of traveling to Mars and a $28.5 trillion TAM (total addressable market) sounds incredible.
However, here’s what the S-1 filing buried:
In Q1 2026, Space generated only $619M in revenue against a $662M operating loss. The reason is R&D, Space segment funded $930M of R&D expenses in Q1 2026 alone for the starship programme. The narrative is that Starship is an investment that unlocks everything else, and that might be correct, but investors are being asked to fund a programme with no GAAP revenue yet against enormous capital consumption.
Elon has also buried his AI failure of Grok into SpaceX, which burns through cash. The AI segment lost $6.36B from operations in FY2025. Elon doesn’t want to admit Grok was a failure, he is using a facade that data centers going to space will save xAI, as if Anthropic and google aren't actively building cheaper replacements.
Once the Elon and other SpaceX employees can sell their shares. The stock will plummet and retail investors will be the exit liquidity. This is merely a cash grab.
Main reference + charts available at:
https://traderange.net/analysis/spacex-s-1-filing-fv2qu0xw/
Additional sources:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
This stopped being a legit company the moment SpaceX assumed Twitter debt via the Grok merger. I think Elon is dumping all of his side hustles on the billionaires running private equity, dogecoin style.
disclosed in S1 = doesn't want you to know.
At least proof read your AI slop.
A disclosure in S1 is a legal obligation. I don't see them running to social media with this news.
Also, you can cry AI as much as you want. It isn't.
No Off-Topic Posts - Posts must be on-topic about investing in stocks from a Value Investing perspective.
Off-topic may include (but is not limited to):
Basic personal finance questions;
Cryptocurrency;
General business, political, or economic news;
Company news with no investing focus;
Currency/Forex investing;
Technical/Charting;
Real Estate; Day Trading;
Meme Stocks; Penny Stocks; etc.
“On Topic” is at the discretion of the moderators.
Consider asking general personal finance questions in r/PersonalFinance instead.
I have just read this statement and do not see how it can be applied to this post.
SpaceSex will be the largest intergalactic company in the Milky Way ruling over millions of planets, stars and alien civilizations.
Rockets, Satellites, AI, Planetary Stations, Asteroid Mining, Robotics — SpaceSex is the most diversified business in the world.
Fair price is $2250
You are completely right and OPs post should be removed by mods
Removed, thanks if you were the one to report it
Please now tell me why? Because you read it and went "I knew that." Not how trading works. You knowing something doesn't make the analysis invalid. This removal is an unfair application of your own rulebook.
No-one who is a value investor is under the impression that spaceX is value. Why fill the sub up with this, should we also be posting telling people that stock Y is showing bullish technicals, it’s not value.
If it’s a stock being posted here and people are claiming its value then it would be useful to show the counter argument but that isn’t the case for Space X
Doesn't want you to know, YET includes it in the S-1 and openly talks about it. Got it.
You over-estimate the average investor.
No one. It would have been a good opportunity if he hadn't merged it with Grok, which is a money furnace.
Very true. But:
1) 99% of the posts here have nothing to do with value investing, and
2) OP is not wrong.
Damn straight! This is mega cap tech investing subreddit at this point