r/nio
Wake up call - Q2 Revenue
Author shares a simplified Q2 revenue estimate for NIO, warning that the chance to buy at $5 will disappear when the AI bubble bursts.
- The $5 price level is seen as a temporary floor, implying future upside potential.
- Q2 vehicle revenue can be reliably estimated using factual data and historical proportions.
- The popping of the AI bubble could drain market liquidity and negatively impact speculative assets.
- Revenue lacks diversification, with non-vehicle sales contributing only about 10% to total revenue.
NIO’s Q2 revenue estimate made simple for the investors using the factual data where available. The revenues numbers are for the vehicle revenue only, as currently other sales are insignificant (seems to be about 10 % of total revenues based on previous financial reports).
I believe the table is self explanatory with notes added; any comment, opinion will be appreciated
When the music stops on AI bubble, there won’t be chairs left to sit on for speculators, and neither for those expecting they can buy NIO shares at $5 forever.
Hopefully new L60 does better 🙏
Margins are awful for the refreshed model though. Management said the cost basis went up much more significantly while they still went ahead to lower the price. Seems like an attempt to 'dress' the delivery figures to me.
Upgraded model Launched only 15 June . It should do much better in Q3 & Q4
Well I used real prices for the cars ! If the breakdown is reasonable , 35 billion RMB in revenue is achievable . In fact I used a low ball ASP for April and May to be on the safe side.
I believe 273,000 ASP for April and May is likely to be higher as new expensive models like L80, ES8 five seater were already selling in May which wasn’t there in Q1
I’d read your post if you didn’t wake me up. Lol
Its a good day once again....everything is mega green except for cars.
Wonder why you guys hold on to this stock and whine all day when you can just sell it and buy some profitable earnings semi stocks which are pretty much going up every other day.
The 48k June deliveries look possible, but the revenue estimate feels too bullish.
It assumes a massive jump in average selling price and even puts vehicle revenue above NIO’s total Q2 revenue guidance.
Still a very strong quarter, just probably not 121% growth....
Well I used real prices for the cars ! If the breakdown is reasonable , 35 billion RMB in revenue is achievable . In fact I used a low ball ASP for April and May to be on the safe side.
I believe 273,000 ASP for April and May is likely to be higher as new expensive models like L80, ES8 five seater were already selling in May which wasn’t there in Q1
https://preview.redd.it/3ttznefzmh7h1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9818230093263f1884831377706a195c7db4a1fe
aint selling !
You’ve basically explained why this company is in the dump. All that money spent for 10% revenue. Battery is a good thing, it’s just not good for Nio.
Can you explain this to Xpeng's CEO
He already knows he doesn’t face to sell twice as many cars because battery swap.
I have shares at 10, dca'd at 3.8 last year, again at 4.8 this year, now ready for the ride!!!
Most of the EVs sold in China are on BAAS basis.
I think the average selling price that you use is too high.
That said, NIO will have a heavy correction in its stock price by end-of-year 2026.
I am confident that it will be an upward price-correction.
NIO has a technological edge over other EV brands.
It has
- Battery Swaps, this generates an income for NIO and allows a faster refueling for the NIO Group EVs,
- BAAS, this lowers the buying-price of the EVs,
- it produces its own EV chips, which is faster than Nvidia generic chips and this allows NIO to incur huge savings than buying from Nvidia.
- it also might be supplying EV chips to other EV brands, as NIO has the data and infrastructure to do so.
- provides drive-by-wire, which means it has a less complicated mechanical structure.
- produces the most stable, yet fluid chasis, through ClearMotion SkyRide, which will also be sold in another form to Porsche. But ClearMotion has been partially invested by NIO.
- NIO has NIO Life, which is really a social club with a Costco re-selling function of highly curated goods.
These are the major moats that NIO has over other brands.