r/stocks
When Iran war started SPY was at $686 and today $756 (Nearly +10%)
Author questions what could halt the market's melt-up as war, inflation, and rate fears seem irrelevant amid strong earnings.
- Corporate earnings are exceptionally strong, fundamentally supporting the market unlike the unprofitable 2000 dot-com bubble.
- The market has shown incredible resilience, consistently rallying despite geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic headwinds.
- The relentless melt-up feels like 'monopoly money' euphoria, raising concerns about an unsustainable and disconnected rally.
- The complete disconnect from traditional macroeconomic factors suggests the market may be due for a pause or correction.
Can we just accept that the war had no impact on the market?. Market can be disconnected to the actual economy thats a different discussion but war has no effect on the market at all. It has always been melting up straight up despite TACO and peace deal flip flop. Bad news meant up, good news meant higher melt up.
I have only been trading since 2012. So can't comment on 2008 sell off and rebound but I have seen few sell off in that timeframe, Brexit, then I think 2018 Nov-Dec, Covid sell off, interest rate sell off and then liberation day sell off. Every since liberation day rebound, we have been melting up and up only. Have we ever seen this kind of euphoria before? Market is up 50% since liberation day sell off. Which was in April 2nd. Fifty % by just buying basic index. Not picking stock, but just buying SPY.
Not asking to predict the top but If war doesn't affect the market, if inflation doesn't affect the market and now no way interest rates will rise either. So what gives? I am looking for some scenarios and hear about people's insight who have been in for way longer than I am. And please don't bring up 2000 bubble, that bursted because of no earnings. Currently all companies are making shit top of money hand over fist. So what are other possibilities that can put a pause? It surely can't keep doubling every 2 year right? Billions, trillions now doesn't even matter all feels like monopoly money.