r/stocks
Rocket Lab just put up its best quarter ever and the stock is down ~25% from its June high. What am I missing?
RKLB's strong fundamentals and $2.2B backlog contrast with a 25% drop and insider selling, raising questions about hidden red flags.
- Revenue is accelerating with a 36% YoY growth and a massive $2.2B backlog.
- Secured 31 new launch contracts and a $190M DoD order, supported by aggressive hiring.
- Stock is down 25% from its June high due to sector spooks and SpaceX IPO distraction.
- Insiders, including a director and executives, sold shares near the recent highs.
Trying to make sense of RKLB here, because the business and the stock are pointing in opposite directions.
Last four quarters of revenue: $122.6M, $144.5M, $155.1M, $179.7M. That's up roughly 36% year over year and still accelerating. The writeup I read pegs the latest quarter near $200M with a backlog that doubled to $2.2B, 31 new launch contracts and a $190M DoD block order on top. Hiring backs the story up, open roles have climbed to around 270 a week, near the highest I've tracked for them.
So why is it down about 25% from its June high near $144 to roughly $105? A Blue Origin rocket blew up and spooked the entire space sector, and the SpaceX IPO sucked all the oxygen out of the room the same week. Neither of those is a Rocket Lab problem.
The one thing that does nag at me is insider selling. A director sold 40,000 shares at $123.60 on June 2, and a couple of execs trimmed at $143 to $150 in late May. They were lightening up right into the top.
So the fundamentals say execution, the chart says run, and the insiders quietly took some off the table near the highs. Is this a sector selloff handing you a discount, or do the insiders see something the backlog doesn't?
You’re missing that it was significantly less a year ago. And its MC is already enormous.
I’m assuming a good deal of it is actually national defense related
Space stocks are love island
All money going to spcx that’s what
Stop wondering why and buy more. The universe is giving you a hint to buy more.
All space stocks were in part a proxy buy for SpaceX. Now that you can buy SpaceX, the proxy premium is disappearing.
You’re missing the fact that it’s a fucking unprofitable rocket ship company and its now second fiddle in the public world.
What am I missing, he says... We just had $2T IPO that surely reallocated some funds from other space sector names!
It will take RKLB YEARS if not a decade or more for it to catch up with launch cadence of the Falcon 9. And who knows how far ahead SpaceX will be at that time. Yes, it’s a space system company blah blah but it is overvalued by all metrics. This is also why I like ASTS better. They have a huge customer base they can access in a couple of years (assuming all the sats get up).
At the end of the day price is dictated by the number of buyers vs sellers. No one gives a shit about fundamentals anymore as long as there are more people willing to buy at a higher price. Once that goes away price tanks.
You’re right, panic sell everything now, it’s over. (/s)
Zoom out. Stock was at $78 on may 7th, up to $150 on may 27th. I love this company but they’re still not profitable, posting net losses and negative cash flow. I’m not surprised at all, with macro and micro economic turmoil, that a stock this volatile has experienced a pullback. Unless you’re day trading or short term investing in the company this is par for the course.
It’s holding the $100 level so far. Why are you complaining
Their whole business model relies on customers willing to pay their launch costs on Neutron or Electron to justify their integrated sat platform costs. If it's cheaper to launch on starship with an additional kick stage to reach any desired orbit then there is no reason to produce your sat through rocket lab.
You have a fundamental misunderstanding of the company or you're trolling lol.
Please explain what RKLB'moat is in your opinion. I have been following the space industry for 30 years and I wouldn't risk any investment in them at the moment.