r/stocks
SpaceX/SPCX IPO: Am I wrong to wait until the lock-up sell pressure becomes clear?
Author is cautious on SPCX post-IPO, preferring to wait for lock-up expiration and first earnings to avoid early investors' sell pressure.
- Small public float is artificially inflating the stock price.
- Early investors with low cost basis will likely take profits, causing massive sell pressure.
- First unlock could be around 20% while retail only trades 4%, leading to a significant price drop.
I’m trying to understand the IPO mechanics and possible sell pressure after the lock-up period.
From what I understand, only a small percentage of the total shares are currently available to trade publicly, while most of the shares are still held by early investors, insiders, or pre-IPO shareholders. That limited float could be one reason the price is being pushed up so strongly right now. (Which is designed this way to enrichen the early-locked-investors?)
My concern is what happens when more locked shares become available. If early shareholders bought at a much lower price, for example around $135 or less, they may have a strong reason to take profit once they are allowed to sell. That could create major selling pressure. Even a bigger drop since the first release is about 20% and we retail people are trading just 4% of the stocks between ourselves?
Because of that, I’m thinking it may be safer to wait until at least the first quarterly report, or until the 180-day lock-up period is over, before deciding whether to buy.
Am I understanding this correctly, or am I missing something important about how the lock-up and float work?
No. You are wise
December 2026 puts - when lock up ends - real money
I mean if it goes the way of Tesla, it’s just buy on every dip
Spcx still ripping on overnight market.
I have so few shares I figure I will just forget I have them for 10 years or so and see what happens, that sounds more fun than selling for a $50 share profit currently.
Its your money, I don't care how you spend it. You may even make a bunch of money on this. But you won't make as much as the last powerball winner.
Also like you said most technologies would be faced with resistance, AI is one of them, and you are the resistance. Only to the ones you dont like obviously.
And you didn't make money in the powerball or space x, the world will move on just fine.
We're in a stocks sub so we're talking about investment strategies. And even though the powerball winner made more money than you or I ever will doesn't mean they found a reliable way to turn money into more money.
Gladly. SpaceX is compounding revenue at a 33% YoY growth rate, hitting $18.67 billion in 2025. At that pace, their revenue doubles every 2.4 years. By 2030, they hit over $77 billion in sales, dropping their current valuation multiple down to a completely normal 27x. Wall Street prices the forward compounding curve, not yesterday's snapshot. I left the exponents simple so you could follow along.
Okay, so by year 2030, they hit a whopping $77 billion in sales, to weigh against their 2026 2.5tn market cap. Yep, following along, totally with you.
Their 2026 market cap of 2+ trillion is justified by their totally foreseeable 2030 revenue of $77 billion.
Absolute mindboggling scale of business, to be sure.
😂
Every serious investor and all the biggest institutions bought in on day one. You have some sort of trick that they aren’t aware of? If you did, you probably wouldn’t be posting here for advice. Just buy and hold.
Definitely more educated and thought out then that but nice one!
K, good luck. Lol
I am having good luck, my stop losses will keep me in the green, will still make 40% if my order is triggered, and when it does I'll buy more. I already quit my job as an electrician and started working at McDonald's 😆