r/stockmarket
Elevated Daily Volatility in the S&P 500 Has Historically Coincided With Market Stress
S&P 500 daily volatility is unusually high this year, historically coinciding with market stress, high CPI, and potential rate hikes.
- S&P 500 daily volatility is unusually high, historically preceding or accompanying major drawdowns and market stress.
- Geopolitical tensions, such as Trump's posts on the Iran war, are causing extreme market reactions.
- Macro headwinds include multi-year high CPI and bond markets pricing in at least one rate hike by end of 2026.
Daily volatility has been unusually elevated this year & a century of S&P 500 data suggests today’s market Is unusually volatile/ unstable….
The S&P 500 has closed up or down at least 100 bps on 26% of trading days this year thus far. This is makes 2026 the 38th most volatile calendar year since 1928 by that measure.
That does not guarantee a bear market, but the historical company is not exactly comforting considering that essentially all comparable years occurred during, immediately before, or shortly after major drawdowns, recessions, crashes, or periods of severe market stress.
A lot of the most volatile days have been a direct result of the market reacting extremely strongly President Trump’s truth social posts about the war in Iran around “peace deals,” opening the Strait of Hormuz, and temporary ceasefire agreements. Amidst this backdrop, y/y CPI is printing at a multi-year high, while employment numbers have remained strong. The new fed chair spoke about bringing back price stability and the bond market/ predictions markets are suggesting that at least 1 rate hike is likely by cthe end of 2026.
Wind correlates with moving air… whats the news here?
Ikr, i read the title and thought of "fork found in kitchen*
this
Yeah, OP’s title is the biggest “no shit, Sherlock” statement ever.
38th most volatile is the same as the 61th less volatile. OP just shared data that says “this is a typical year” and the take from that is to run for the hills. On that measure alone, history is extremely comforting
It also compares apples to stegossaurus, since the year isn’t even close to over yet
Yeah crazy how everyone wants to make market predictions but barely do any research
Volatility is a symptom, not a cause.
What matters is whether this ends with tighter liquidity or easier liquidity. That's usually what decides where markets go next.
fries in the bag bro
So calls it is?
2015 was just like eff it.
Yes it is similar in the sense that it is a measure of market volatility but the VIX’s methodology calculates the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. This is the frequency of single day +/- 1% changes in the S&P 500
Another hour, another Reddit post about how the market is overdue for a correction.
Meanwhile, most investors are making money.
For real? Your going to prove now that water is wet?
Not factoring in that a large chunk of the market is tech sector, AI and semiconductors. Right now the rest of the market is not growing. All the money is concentrated in these stocks.
If you redo the stats for only tech sector and also only for rest of market the results are totally different.
I thrive in volatility, so keep it coming